Monsoon begins retreat from northwest India amid 43% area rain deficit

The southwest monsoon has begun a timely retreat from northwest India even as nearly 43 per cent of the country's geographical area remains rain deficient, the IMD said on Saturday. It has withdrawn from parts of west Rajasthan. Country-wide rainfall till September 19 was 15 per cent below normal at 695.6mm. Meghalaya (-59%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%) and Telangana (-21%) recorded deficits. A low pressure system over the North Andaman Sea may cross south Odisha-north Andhra coasts around September 23.

Written by AI from Indian Express — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 19 Sept 2026, 8:18 pm IST

Source

Indian Express — India · read the original report ↗

#monsoon#imd#rainfall deficit#depression#bay of bengal

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

Southwest monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of west Rajasthan, close to the normal date of September 17 with a four-day deviation. — Attributed to IMD statement on Saturday; figure appears in source.
Nearly 43 per cent of India's geographical area remains rain deficient. — Attributed to IMD in the source; no breakdown provided.
Country-wide rainfall till September 19 was 15 per cent below normal at 695.6mm. — Specific figure appears in source, attributed to IMD data.
A low pressure system over North Andaman Sea will intensify into a depression around September 21 and cross south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts around September 23. — Forecast directly quoted from IMD; predictive and subject to revision.
State-wise deficits include Meghalaya -59%, Andhra Pradesh -43%, Telangana -21%. — Figures appear in source without individual attribution beyond IMD data.

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Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

A monsoon that ends 15 per cent below normal, with 43 per cent of the country's area in deficit, is not just a weather story — it is a political input for the coming months. Deficits of 21-43 per cent in states as varied as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana set up a familiar sequence: farmer distress claims, demands for drought declarations and central relief, and blame-trading between state and Union governments. The immediate political test, however, is administrative — the low pressure system heading for the south Odisha-north Andhra coast means governments will be judged on visible preparedness within days.

Bihar's 36 per cent deficit is politically the most sensitive number here, given how closely rural distress and relief delivery track in electorally active states.
Deficit states run by different parties will likely converge on one demand — larger central relief packages — which turns a climate outcome into a centre-state bargaining issue.
For Andhra Pradesh (-43%) and Telangana (-21%), a weak monsoon revives the durable politics of irrigation, water-sharing and crop loan relief that dominates both states' debate.
Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana heading for 21-40 per cent shortfalls keeps procurement, power subsidy and groundwater questions in play in the northern farm belt.
The incoming system cuts both ways politically: it could partially ease deficits in eastern India, but any flood or crop damage will be measured against the government's response time.

What to watch — Watch whether state governments begin formal drought or distress assessments and press the Centre for relief, and how quickly evacuation and relief machinery is visible along the Odisha-Andhra coast around the system's landfall.

The story is a meteorological report only — it establishes no crop losses, no relief demands, no political statements and no assessment of how these rainfall figures will translate into agricultural or electoral outcomes.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 7 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

India's southwest monsoon, which runs roughly June to September, normally begins withdrawing from northwest India around September 17. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Saturday that withdrawal has begun from parts of west Rajasthan, close to the climatological normal date. However, the season has been largely deficient: country-wide rainfall till September 19 was 15 per cent below normal, and about 43 per cent of India's geographical area remains rain deficient. Simultaneously, a low pressure system over the North Andaman Sea is expected to intensify and cross the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts around September 23.

Key facts

Nearly 43 per cent of India's geographical area remains in a rain deficit even as the monsoon begins retreating.
Country-wide seasonal rainfall till September 19 was 15 per cent below normal at 695.6mm.
IMD said the monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of west Rajasthan, with a deviation of four days from the climatological normal of September 17.
The line of monsoon withdrawal passed through Rajasthan's Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala areas as of Saturday.
IMD expects retreat from more parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Kutch-Saurashtra within the next three to four days.
Rajasthan and Punjab are most likely to end the season with a rain deficit of 21 to 40 per cent.
Worst-hit states: Meghalaya (-59%), Andhra Pradesh (-43%), Arunachal Pradesh (-41%), Bihar (-36%), Goa (-35%), Karnataka (-31%), Kerala (-28%), Assam (-26%), Tamil Nadu and Haryana (-22% each), Telangana (-21%).
Rainfall was below normal in June, August and September (till date), while July rainfall was about 1 per cent above normal.

Timeline

September 17Climatological normal date for the start of monsoon withdrawal from northwest India.
Till September 19Country-wide seasonal rainfall recorded at 695.6mm, 15 per cent below normal.
Saturday (as reported)IMD says monsoon has withdrawn from some parts of west Rajasthan; withdrawal line passes through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala.
Around September 21North Andaman Sea low pressure system likely to move west-northwest and intensify into a depression.
Around September 22System expected to become a deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal.
Around September 23System expected to cross south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Next three to four days (from Saturday)Monsoon to retreat from more parts of Rajasthan, Punjab and Kutch-Saurashtra.

Who has a stake

India Meteorological Department (IMD) — National weather agency issuing withdrawal declarations, rainfall deficit data and warnings on the Bay of Bengal system.
Farmers in Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana — Face season-end deficits of 21-40 per cent (Rajasthan, Punjab) and -22 per cent (Haryana) as monsoon retreats.
Northeastern states (Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam) — Among the worst-hit with deficits of -59%, -41% and -26% respectively, despite being high-rainfall regions.
Southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu) — Deficits of -43%, -21%, -31%, -28% and -22% affect water availability and cropping.
Odisha, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Sikkim and coastal Andhra Pradesh — Forecast to receive moderate to heavy rainfall through the next week from the approaching system.
Kutch-Saurashtra region (Gujarat) — Monsoon withdrawal expected within three to four days, closing the rainfall window.

Why it matters

A 15 per cent country-wide shortfall with 43 per cent of the area deficient means the monsoon is ending without making up its losses, with direct consequences for kharif output, reservoir storage and rabi sowing in states like Rajasthan, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Meghalaya. At the same time, the Bay of Bengal low pressure system shows how deficient seasons can still end in concentrated heavy-rain events over eastern India, complicating both drought and flood management.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

Climatological normal date for monsoon withdrawal from northwest India: September 17.
Country-wide monsoon rainfall till September 19: 695.6mm, 15 per cent below normal; about 43 per cent of area rain deficient.
Highest state deficit reported: Meghalaya at -59 per cent; Andhra Pradesh -43 per cent.
Withdrawal line (as of Saturday) passed through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala in Rajasthan.
Sequence of intensification: low pressure area to depression (around Sept 21) to deep depression over west-central Bay of Bengal (around Sept 22).
IMD is India's national weather agency; it declares monsoon onset and withdrawal.

Mains framing

The 2025-style monsoon pattern described here - a timely withdrawal beginning from west Rajasthan close to the normal date of September 17, but with a 15 per cent national rainfall shortfall and 43 per cent of the geographical area deficient - illustrates that timeliness of the monsoon's calendar does not guarantee adequacy of its volume. The distribution is strikingly uneven: only July was marginally above normal (about 1 per cent), while June, August and September stayed below normal, and traditionally wet regions such as Meghalaya (-59%) and Arunachal Pradesh (-41%) fared worse than the national average alongside southern states like Andhra Pradesh (-43%) and Karnataka (-31%). The implications run through kharif yields, groundwater recharge, reservoir levels and rabi prospects in Rajasthan and Punjab, which may close the season 21-40 per cent short. Meanwhile the North Andaman Sea low pressure system, expected to intensify into a deep depression and cross the south Odisha-north Andhra coasts around September 23, means eastern India could face moderate to heavy rain even as the northwest dries out. The way forward, as far as the source supports, lies in relying on IMD's withdrawal and system-tracking advisories for irrigation scheduling, sowing decisions and heavy-rainfall preparedness in the affected coastal and eastern states.

Key terms

Southwest monsoon: India's main rain-bearing season; its withdrawal from northwest India normally begins around September 17.
Line of monsoon withdrawal: The notional line IMD draws to mark areas from which the monsoon has retreated; on Saturday it passed through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala.
Rain deficit: Rainfall below the long-term normal for a region; nationally 15 per cent below normal at 695.6mm till September 19.
Low pressure system: A weather system, here formed over the North Andaman Sea, that can intensify and bring heavy rain on landfall.
Depression / deep depression: Successive intensification stages of a low pressure system; expected around September 21 and September 22 respectively over the Bay of Bengal.
India Meteorological Department (IMD): The national weather agency that issues monsoon onset/withdrawal announcements, rainfall statistics and rain warnings.

Practice questions

Despite a near-normal withdrawal date, the 2025 southwest monsoon left 43 per cent of India's area rain deficient. Discuss how spatial and temporal variability of monsoon rainfall affects agricultural and water planning in India.
Explain the stages by which a low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal intensifies, and assess why the east coast states of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh are especially exposed to such systems in September.
Critically examine the utility of the national average rainfall figure as an indicator of monsoon performance, using the state-wise deficits reported for Meghalaya, Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Punjab.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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