Monsoon withdraws from parts of northwest India, including Delhi

The southwest monsoon withdrew on Wednesday from most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, all of Delhi and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, the IMD said. Its exit from Delhi came two days before the normal date of September 25 and was the earliest since 2002. All-India monsoon rainfall was 15% deficient as on September 22, at 706.9mm against a normal of 832.4mm. A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal may bring intense showers to Andhra Pradesh and Odisha.

Written by AI from Hindustan Times — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 23 Sept 2026, 3:18 pm IST

Source

Hindustan Times — India · read the original report ↗

#monsoon#imd#rainfall deficit#el nino#delhi weather

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

Monsoon withdrew from Delhi two days before the normal date of September 25, the earliest since 2002 (September 20). — Attributed to IMD data in the source; internally consistent.
All-India monsoon rainfall was 15% deficient as on September 22, with 706.9mm against a normal of 832.4mm. — Figures appear in source, attributed to IMD; arithmetic consistent with a roughly 15% shortfall.
A deep depression over the Bay of Bengal was to cross the north Andhra Pradesh-south Odisha coasts near Kalingapatnam by the night of September 23. — Directly quoted from an IMD statement.
Delhi received 562.7mm since June 1, 6% above the normal of 532.3mm; Safdarjung logged 728.6mm, nearly 14% above normal. — Figures appear in source; no separate attribution given beyond IMD data.
El Nino will intensify into a 'very strong' event, with near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027. — Attributed to the World Meteorological Organisation statement of September 3.

Written by AI from Hindustan Times — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · How we use AI · Report an error

Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

This reads as a weather bulletin, but its real weight is likely to be felt in politics. Deficits of 40% in Punjab, 37% in Bihar, 38% in Andhra Pradesh and 60% in Meghalaya point to pressure on rural incomes, farm credit and power-and-water subsidy bills. With the WMO saying El Niño is likely to persist through February 2027 and threaten Rabi rains, this political burden may not end with one season.

In the worst-hit states, the natural political response is for opposition parties to press for drought declarations, compensation and loan relief.
Centre-state friction could sharpen over disaster relief funds and the size and timing of any assistance package.
The contrast between Delhi's 6% surplus and a 15% national deficit offers ready material for a metro-versus-rural political narrative.
Forecasts being revised downward — IMD from April to June, Skymet from 94% to 85% of normal — hands the opposition a question about how much advance preparation followed the warnings.
If the Bay of Bengal system delivers intense rain in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, governments face the harder test of managing drought and flood response simultaneously.

What to watch — Watch whether high-deficit states move in the coming weeks to notify drought-affected areas, seek central assistance, or announce seed and irrigation support for the Rabi season.

The story is meteorological only — it does not establish how any government or party has responded, what the electoral impact may be, or the scale of crop loss; those are my analytical inferences.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 8 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The southwest monsoon, which normally runs June 1 to September 30, begins its retreat from northwest India in mid-September. On September 23, 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced withdrawal from most of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, all of Delhi, and parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat — Delhi's earliest exit since 2002. The season has been unusually poor, with all-India rainfall 15% deficient as on September 22, a shortfall linked to a strengthening El Niño. Even as the monsoon retreats in the northwest, a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal was set to bring intense rain to the Andhra Pradesh–Odisha coast.

Key facts

IMD said the monsoon withdrew on September 23, 2026 from most parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, entire Delhi and some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.
Delhi's withdrawal came two days before the normal date of September 25 and was the earliest since 2002, when it occurred on September 20; last year it was September 24.
All-India monsoon rainfall as on September 22 was 706.9mm against a normal of 832.4mm for June 1–September 22 — a 15% deficit.
Regional deficits: east and northeast India -27%, south peninsula -26%, northwest India -10%, central India -6%.
State deficits included Punjab -40%, Haryana -24%, Rajasthan -21%, Bihar -37%, Meghalaya -60%, Manipur -43%, Arunachal Pradesh -42%, Andhra Pradesh -38%, Karnataka -30%, Kerala -27%.
Delhi as a whole received 562.7mm since June 1, 6% above the normal of 532.3mm; Safdarjung logged 728.6mm against a normal of 640.4mm, nearly 14% excess.
The deep depression over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal moved west at 5 km/hr and was to cross the north Andhra Pradesh–south Odisha coasts between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, close to Kalingapatnam, by the night of September 23.
The withdrawal line on Wednesday passed through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa and Naliya.

Timeline

April 2026IMD forecast monsoon at 92% of LPA; Skymet's initial forecast was 94% of LPA.
June 2026IMD revised its seasonal forecast down from 92% to 90% of LPA, with a 60% probability of a deficient season.
August 17, 2026Skymet issued a revised forecast of 85% of LPA with a 70% probability of drought.
August 31, 2026IMD forecast below-normal September rainfall (less than 91% of LPA).
September 3, 2026WMO said El Niño was firmly established and would intensify into a 'very strong' event, with near 100% likelihood of persisting through February 2027.
September 19, 2026Withdrawal from west Rajasthan commenced, two days later than the normal date of September 17.
September 22, 2026All-India rainfall recorded at 706.9mm, a 15% deficit.
September 23, 2026IMD announced withdrawal from entire Delhi and most of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan; deep depression to cross the Andhra–Odisha coast by night.

Who has a stake

India Meteorological Department (IMD) — Official agency declaring withdrawal dates, tracking the withdrawal line and issuing seasonal and monthly rainfall forecasts.
Farmers in deficit states (Punjab -40%, Bihar -37%, Meghalaya -60%, Andhra Pradesh -38%) — Poor monsoon rainfall affects kharif output; a possible milder, drier winter threatens Rabi crops.
Delhi and its residents — Earliest monsoon exit since 2002, though the UT ended with 6% surplus rain (Safdarjung nearly 14% excess).
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coastal districts — Face intense local showers as the deep depression crosses between Visakhapatnam and Gopalpur, near Kalingapatnam.
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) — Assessed El Niño as firmly established and intensifying, with flood, drought and extreme heat risks through February 2027.
Skymet Weather — Private forecaster whose revised August forecast of 85% of LPA carried a 70% drought probability.

Why it matters

A 15% all-India rainfall deficit with large-deficient pockets like Meghalaya (-60%) and Punjab (-40%) squeezes kharif yields, soil moisture and reservoir storage just as the Rabi sowing season begins. With the WMO projecting a 'very strong' El Niño persisting through February 2027 and experts warning of a milder winter with reduced rain, the shortfall could extend across two crop cycles. The simultaneous deep depression over the Bay of Bengal shows how a deficient season can still end in localised heavy rain and flood risk.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

Normal date of monsoon withdrawal from Delhi is September 25; in 2026 it withdrew on September 23 — earliest since 2002 (September 20).
Normal withdrawal from west Rajasthan is September 17; in 2026 it began on September 19.
All-India rainfall June 1–September 22, 2026: 706.9mm vs normal 832.4mm (-15%).
Rainfall below 91% of the Long Period Average (LPA) is classified as below normal in IMD forecasts.
WMO (September 3, 2026): El Niño firmly established, to become 'very strong', with near 100% chance of persisting through February 2027.
Safdarjung is Delhi's base weather station; it recorded 728.6mm against a normal of 640.4mm.

Mains framing

The 2026 southwest monsoon illustrates how large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing translates into uneven domestic rainfall outcomes. A strengthening El Niño — described by the WMO on September 3 as firmly established and set to become 'very strong' — coincided with successive downward revisions of seasonal forecasts: IMD from 92% of LPA in April to 90% in June with a 60% probability of deficiency, and Skymet from 94% in April to 85% in August with a 70% drought probability. The season closed with an all-India deficit of 15% as on September 22, but the spatial spread matters more than the average: east and northeast India (-27%) and the south peninsula (-26%) were worst hit, with Meghalaya at -60%, Manipur -43% and Andhra Pradesh -38%, while Delhi actually ended in surplus (+6%, Safdarjung +14%). Early withdrawal from the northwest on September 23, the earliest from Delhi since 2002, shortens the effective rain window for late kharif and residual soil moisture ahead of Rabi sowing, with experts warning of a milder winter and reduced Rabi rains. Yet the deep depression crossing the Andhra–Odisha coast the same day underlines that deficit seasons carry concurrent flood risk. The way forward, on the evidence in the source, lies in district-level rather than national-average monitoring, timely revision and communication of forecasts, and preparedness for the dual El Niño risks of drought and extreme rainfall flagged by the WMO through February 2027.

Key terms

Southwest monsoon withdrawal: The seasonal retreat of monsoon rains, declared region-wise by IMD and mapped by a moving 'line of withdrawal'.
Long Period Average (LPA): The long-term normal rainfall benchmark against which seasonal forecasts are expressed; below 91% of LPA is 'below normal'.
Deep depression: An intense low-pressure system over the sea, stronger than a depression; the Bay of Bengal system was to cross near Kalingapatnam.
El Niño: Warming of the central and eastern Pacific that typically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall; WMO expects a 'very strong' event into February 2027.
Safdarjung station: Delhi's official base weather station, which recorded 728.6mm this monsoon against a normal of 640.4mm.
Large-deficient rainfall: IMD category for a severe rainfall shortfall; Meghalaya's -60% was described as large-deficient.

Practice questions

The 2026 monsoon ended with a 15% all-India deficit yet Delhi recorded a 6% surplus. Discuss why national rainfall averages can mask agricultural distress, using region-wise data.
Examine the influence of El Niño on the Indian southwest monsoon and the Rabi season, with reference to the WMO's September 2026 assessment.
Early monsoon withdrawal from northwest India coincided with a deep depression over the Bay of Bengal. Analyse the challenges this poses for disaster preparedness and crop planning.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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