Andhra Pradesh ends monsoon with 29% rain deficit

Andhra Pradesh recorded 367.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 515 mm between June 1 and Sept 29, a deficit of about 29%, according to IMD. The Rayalaseema region's nine districts logged a 39% shortfall and coastal Andhra 20%, with Annamayya district worst at 59%. State reservoirs hold 564 TMC against a capacity of 1,107 TMC, or 50.94%. Kharif sowing covered 25.59 lakh hectares of a normal 30.84 lakh hectares.

Written by AI from Times of India — Visakhapatnam · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 1 Oct 2026, 2:10 am IST

Source

Times of India — Visakhapatnam · read the original report ↗

#monsoon#rainfall deficit#rayalaseema#andhra pradesh#el nino#kharif

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

Andhra Pradesh recorded 367.5 mm rainfall against a normal of 515 mm from June 1 to Sept 29, a 29% deficit. — Figures appear in source, attributed to IMD; graphic box cites normal as 514 mm, a minor internal inconsistency.
Rayalaseema's nine districts recorded 244.2 mm against a normal of 402.5 mm, about a 39% deficit. — Figure appears in source and is consistent with the headline claim.
State reservoirs hold 564 TMC against a combined capacity of 1,107 TMC, or 50.94%. — Attributed to APWRIMS in the source.
Kharif sowing covered 25.59 lakh hectares, 83% of the normal 30.84 lakh hectares. — Attributed to agriculture department officials.
El Nino disrupted the monsoon and is likely to intensify and persist through Feb 2027. — Attributed only to unnamed 'weathermen'; forecast claim an editor should treat as projection.

Written by AI from Times of India — Visakhapatnam · not yet reviewed by an editor · How we use AI · Report an error

Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

A 29% statewide rainfall deficit — and 39% in Rayalaseema — is not merely a weather statistic; it is likely to shape Andhra Pradesh's political agenda for the months ahead. Rayalaseema, historically drought-prone and a decisive electoral bloc, records the sharpest shortfalls, with Annamayya at 59%, Sri Sathya Sai at 47% and Kadapa at 42%, creating fertile ground for charges of regional neglect. With reservoirs just over half full and the Pennar basin at 37.7%, inter-regional pressure over water allocation could intensify.

Kharif coverage at only 83% of normal acreage sets up predictable opposition demands for drought declarations, input subsidies and loan relief if yields fall.
The 39% Rayalaseema deficit revives the state's oldest and most potent fault line — regional water allocation and perceived neglect of the interior districts.
Given 21% excess rain in 2024 and a normal 2025 monsoon, the government will likely frame this as a natural shock while the opposition frames it as administrative failure.
Forecasts of El Nino persisting into February 2027 mean rabi sowing and drinking water supply could keep the issue politically alive well beyond this season.
Four districts, including Visakhapatnam, Guntur and Konaseema, saw above-normal rain — sharpening the politics of who gets how much relief.

What to watch — Watch for any drought-mandal notification, the size and timing of input subsidy or relief packages, and how vocal Rayalaseema legislators become on water share.

The story reports only meteorological, reservoir and sowing data — it establishes no government or opposition response, no drought declaration and no compensation decision.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 10 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The southwest monsoon (June-September) delivers the bulk of Andhra Pradesh's annual rainfall and drives its kharif cropping season. In 2026, the monsoon officially ended on Sept 30 with the state recording a rainfall deficit of about 29%, marked by prolonged dry spells that weathermen attribute to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific. A late deep depression over the Bay of Bengal in the last week of September improved coastal rainfall, but Rayalaseema remained the worst hit, raising fears of low crop yields and a water crisis.

Key facts

Andhra Pradesh recorded 367.5 mm rainfall from June 1 to Sept 29, 2026 against a normal of 515 mm - a deficit of about 29%, per IMD.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh (19 districts and Yanam of Puducherry) got 474.1 mm against a normal of 594.3 mm, a 20% deficit.
Rayalaseema's nine districts recorded 244.2 mm against a normal of 402.5 mm, around a 39% deficit.
Monthly deficits: 3% in June, 38% in July, 45% in August and 28% in September 2026.
Deficit narrowed from 43% on Sept 15 to 29% on Sept 29 after a Bay of Bengal deep depression brought heavy to very heavy rain to coastal AP on Sept 23-24.
State reservoirs hold 564 TMC against a combined capacity of 1,107 TMC, or 50.94%, per APWRIMS; Godavari system at 89%, Krishna 54%, Pennar basin and Rayalaseema reservoirs at 37.7%.
Kharif sowing covered 25.59 lakh hectares, 83% of the full-season normal of 30.84 lakh hectares; paddy 13.2 lakh ha, cotton 4.3 lakh ha, pulses 3.8 lakh ha, coarse grains 1.78 lakh ha.
Worst-hit districts: Annamayya (-59%), Sri Sathya Sai (-47%), Prakasam (-46%), Tirupati (-43%), Kadapa (-42%); 13 districts recorded normal and 13 deficit rainfall.

Timeline

2024 southwest monsoonAndhra Pradesh received 21% excess rainfall.
2025 southwest monsoonAndhra Pradesh recorded normal rainfall.
June 6, 2026Southwest monsoon arrived in Andhra Pradesh.
June 2026State recorded a 3% rainfall deficit.
July 2026Rainfall deficit widened to 38%.
August 2026Deficit deepened to 45% amid an unprecedented shortfall across coastal and Rayalaseema districts.
Sept 15, 2026Cumulative seasonal deficit stood at 43%.
Sept 23-24, 2026Deep depression over Bay of Bengal brought heavy to very heavy rain to coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Sept 29, 2026Cumulative deficit down to 29% (367.5 mm against normal 515 mm).
Sept 30, 2026Southwest monsoon season officially ends.

Who has a stake

Farmers in Andhra Pradesh — Uneven rainfall hit kharif sowing patterns; they expect crop losses and low yields.
Rayalaseema's nine districts — Highest regional deficit (39%), with Annamayya at 59% and Pennar basin reservoirs at 37.7% capacity.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) — Source of rainfall monitoring, deficit figures and El Nino outlook for the state.
APWRIMS (AP Water Resources Information and Management System) — Tracks reservoir storage - 564 TMC of 1,107 TMC capacity - guiding water allocation decisions.
State agriculture department — Reported 25.59 lakh hectares of kharif coverage, 83% of normal; must manage yield and cropping risks.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh districts — 20% deficit, partly offset by the late-September depression rains; Visakhapatnam, Guntur, Konaseema and Srikakulam were above normal.

Why it matters

A 29% seasonal shortfall with reservoirs only half full and kharif acreage at 83% of normal points to lower yields, farm income stress and a possible water crisis in the months ahead. Because El Nino is expected to intensify into a very strong event and persist through February 2027, the risks of extreme heat, drought and even floods extend well beyond this monsoon into the rabi season.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

Southwest monsoon season in India runs June to September; it officially ended on Sept 30, 2026 and was to withdraw from AP in the first week of October.
AP's normal southwest monsoon rainfall is about 514-515 mm; 2026 actual was 367.5 mm (29% deficit).
IMD rainfall categories used in the story: normal is -19% to +19% of normal; deficit is -20% to -59%.
Coastal Andhra Pradesh subdivision includes 19 districts plus Yanam of Puducherry; Rayalaseema has nine districts.
APWRIMS is the Andhra Pradesh Water Resources Information and Management System, which reports reservoir storage.
El Nino is a warming phase over the equatorial Pacific linked to weak Indian monsoon rainfall; 2026 event projected to persist through Feb 2027.

Mains framing

Andhra Pradesh's 2026 monsoon illustrates how large-scale climate drivers translate into local agrarian and water stress. El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific, combined with prolonged dry spells, pushed the state's seasonal deficit from 3% in June to 45% in August, before a late Bay of Bengal deep depression on Sept 23-24 pulled the final figure down to 29% - a recovery that masks acute intra-state inequality, with Rayalaseema at 39% deficit against coastal Andhra's 20%, and Annamayya at 59%. The uneven distribution is mirrored in storage: Godavari reservoirs at 89% and Krishna at 54%, but Pennar basin and Rayalaseema at just 37.7%, with overall storage at 564 of 1,107 TMC. With kharif sowing limited to 25.59 lakh hectares of a normal 30.84 lakh hectares and farmers anticipating yield losses, the implications run from rural incomes to drinking water and rabi planning, especially as El Nino is forecast to strengthen and last through February 2027. The way forward, as suggested by the data in the source, lies in region-specific water management for the deficit Pennar and Rayalaseema systems, contingency cropping advisories for late or failed sowings, and closer use of IMD and APWRIMS monitoring to anticipate drought and extreme-heat risks.

Key terms

El Nino: Warm-phase condition over the equatorial Pacific, blamed here for disrupting AP's 2026 monsoon; likely to become very strong and persist through Feb 2027.
Deep depression: An intense low-pressure system; one over the Bay of Bengal brought heavy to very heavy rain to coastal AP on Sept 23-24, 2026.
TMC: Thousand million cubic feet, the unit used for reservoir storage; AP held 564 TMC of its 1,107 TMC capacity.
Kharif: Monsoon cropping season; AP's normal kharif acreage is 30.84 lakh hectares, with paddy the largest crop.
APWRIMS: Andhra Pradesh Water Resources Information and Management System, which reported the state's dam and barrage storage levels.
Rayalaseema: Nine-district interior region of Andhra Pradesh that recorded the state's highest monsoon deficit at around 39% in 2026.

Practice questions

Examine how El Nino influences the Indian southwest monsoon, using Andhra Pradesh's 2026 season as a case study.
Uneven spatial distribution of rainfall is as serious a problem as overall deficit. Discuss with reference to Andhra Pradesh's coastal and Rayalaseema regions in 2026.
What measures can a state take to protect kharif yields and drinking water security in a deficit monsoon year? Illustrate with the Andhra Pradesh experience.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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