Monsoon withdrawal begins; season may end with over 10% deficit
The southwest monsoon began withdrawing from west Rajasthan on Saturday, against the normal date of September 17, IMD said, with a nationwide rainfall deficit of 15% between June 1 and September 19. Fourteen states, including Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states, report deficits above 20%. The season is likely to end on September 30 with a deficit of more than 10%. Overall kharif acreage fell just over 1%, while paddy declined nearly 4%.
Source
Times of India — Top · read the original report ↗
Desk check · compared with the source
What the desk checked (5)
- Nationwide cumulative rainfall deficit of 15% between June 1 and September 19 — Figure appears in source, attributed to IMD data
- Monsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on Saturday, against the normal date of September 17 — Attributed to IMD; withdrawal line listed as passing through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala
- 14 states, including Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states, have over 20% rain deficit — Stated in source without direct attribution to a named official
- Season likely to end September 30 with over 10% deficit, a level considered drought — Projection presented in source; no named official quoted for the estimate
- Overall kharif sown area down just over 1%; paddy down nearly 4% year-on-year — Attributed to acreage data released Friday; source of data not named
Analysts’ view opinion
A monsoon that ends with a deficit above 10% is not merely a weather statistic — it is a political variable, because rainfall failure travels quickly into food prices, rural incomes and farm-relief demands. The state-wise spread in this story is what makes it politically loaded: Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states are already above 20% deficit, covering both ruling-party and opposition-governed terrain. Expect the contest to shift from blame for the shortfall, which no government controls, to competence in managing its consequences — procurement, compensation, water release and price control.
- A nationwide deficit at levels described as drought-like hands opposition parties a ready-made rural distress narrative, while governments will emphasise relief delivery and buffer stocks.
- The near-4% fall in paddy acreage is the most politically sensitive number here, since rice is central to both farm incomes and consumer food inflation.
- With 14 states affected across different political managements, Centre-state friction over relief funds, water sharing and crop damage assessment is a likely flashpoint.
- The story flags risk to the rabi season as well, which means the political fallout could extend well beyond this harvest into the next sowing cycle.
- Early withdrawal from Rajasthan, Punjab and Saurashtra-Kachchh concentrates stress in agrarian belts where farm politics is already highly organised.
What to watch — Watch for relief and compensation announcements, any moves on procurement or export and stock curbs to hold food prices, and how quickly affected state governments press the Centre for drought-related assistance.
The story establishes rainfall and acreage figures and an IMD assessment, not final crop output, and it does not report any drought declaration, relief package, political reaction or electoral consequence.
Deep dive
Research brief · 8 facts · 8 dates · exam-readyThe brief
Context
The southwest (summer) monsoon delivers most of India's annual rainfall between June and September and drives kharif sowing. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said withdrawal from west Rajasthan began on Saturday, later than the normal start date of September 17, with the process usually ending on October 15. This year's season has run a 15% cumulative rainfall deficit from June 1 to September 19, amid an El Nino event that is typically linked to a weak Indian monsoon.
Key facts
- Nationwide cumulative rainfall deficit stood at 15% for June 1-September 19, as per IMD.
- Monsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on Saturday, against the normal withdrawal start date of September 17.
- The withdrawal line on Saturday passed through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala.
- IMD said conditions were favourable for further withdrawal from more parts of Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kachchh over the next three-four days.
- 14 states, including Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states, reported rain deficits of more than 20%.
- The season is likely to end on September 30 with an overall deficit of more than 10% — a level of deficiency considered a drought.
- Overall kharif sown area declined by a little over 1% this year, per acreage data released Friday.
- Paddy, the largest-acreage seasonal crop and water-intensive, saw sowing decline by nearly 4% over the corresponding period last year.
Timeline
- June 1 - September 19Cumulative nationwide monsoon rainfall deficit recorded at 15%.
- September 17 (normal date)Monsoon usually begins withdrawing from India.
- FridayKharif acreage data showed overall sown area down just over 1%, paddy down nearly 4%.
- SaturdayMonsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan; line passed through Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala.
- Next three-four days (from Saturday)Further withdrawal expected from more parts of Rajasthan and parts of Punjab, Saurashtra and Kachchh.
- Next weekLow pressure area and subsequent depression over east central Bay of Bengal may bring good rain to east India and coastal Odisha.
- September 30Monsoon season likely to end with an overall deficit of more than 10%.
- October 15Normal date by which the withdrawal process ends, a few days before the winter monsoon onset in peninsular India.
Who has a stake
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) — Tracks and announces monsoon withdrawal, rainfall deficits and forecasts of low pressure systems.
- Farmers in the 14 deficit states (Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and the five peninsular states among them) — Face rain deficits above 20%, risking yields and water availability for the coming rabi season.
- Paddy growers — Water-intensive paddy acreage fell nearly 4%, the sharpest decline among kharif crops.
- East India and coastal Odisha — May receive good rain next week from the Bay of Bengal low pressure area and depression.
- Peninsular India — All five peninsular states are in deficit and await the winter monsoon, which normally sets in days after withdrawal ends.
Why it matters
A season-end deficit of more than 10% is treated as a drought-level rainfall shortfall for the country as a whole, with implications for reservoir levels, rural incomes and food prices. Although kharif sowing progressed well, regional variations and skewed rainfall timing can still hurt yields and the sowing of the rabi crop. The unusually widespread deficit — 14 states above 20% — makes the El Nino year's impact a policy concern well beyond September.
UPSC angle
Prelims pointers
- Normal monsoon withdrawal begins September 17 and ends October 15, as per IMD.
- Cumulative June 1-September 19 rainfall deficit this year: 15% nationwide.
- Withdrawal 2023 began from west Rajasthan; line passed Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi, Khajuwala.
- A season-end all-India rainfall deficit above 10% is considered a drought.
- El Nino: warming of ocean surface temperatures in central and eastern equatorial Pacific; linked to harsh summer and weak monsoon in India.
- Winter monsoon (northeast monsoon) sets in over peninsular India a few days after southwest monsoon withdrawal ends.
Mains framing
India's 2023 southwest monsoon illustrates how an El Nino year distorts both the quantum and distribution of rainfall: a 15% cumulative deficit up to September 19, deficits above 20% in 14 states including Bihar, Punjab, Haryana and all five peninsular states, and a delayed withdrawal that began from west Rajasthan after the normal September 17 date, with the season likely closing on September 30 at over 10% below normal — a drought-level shortfall. The agricultural signal is mixed: overall kharif acreage fell only a little over 1%, suggesting sowing held up, but water-intensive paddy fell nearly 4%, and the source cautions that regional variation and the skewed timing of rain can still depress yields and constrain rabi sowing through depleted soil moisture and reservoirs. Late-season systems, such as the low pressure area and depression over the east central Bay of Bengal expected to bring good rain to east India and coastal Odisha, may offer partial relief but cannot even out spatial gaps. The way forward lies in monitoring deficit districts closely, prioritising water use for the rabi season, and shifting cropping choices away from water-intensive patterns where rainfall is most unreliable — with IMD's withdrawal and winter monsoon outlook guiding contingency planning.
Key terms
- Southwest monsoon
- India's summer monsoon, measured cumulatively from June 1 to end-September, normally withdrawing from September 17 to October 15.
- Monsoon withdrawal line
- The boundary IMD draws to mark places from which the monsoon has retreated; on Saturday it passed Ramgarh, Mohangarh, Phalodi and Khajuwala.
- El Nino
- Warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, invariably linked to a harsh summer and weak monsoon in India.
- Kharif crops
- Summer-sown crops grown with monsoon rain; paddy accounts for the most acreage among them.
- Rabi season
- The crop season following kharif, whose sowing can be hit by deficient and badly timed monsoon rain.
- Depression / low pressure area
- Weather systems, here over east central Bay of Bengal, that can bring heavy rain to east India and coastal Odisha.
Practice questions
- Why is an all-India season-end rainfall deficit of more than 10% treated as a drought, and what are its likely consequences for the rabi season?
- Discuss the mechanism by which El Nino weakens the Indian southwest monsoon and evaluate its impact on kharif acreage in 2023.
- Overall kharif sowing fell only about 1% while paddy fell nearly 4%. What does this divergence reveal about farmers' responses to a deficient monsoon?
Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.