India needs flexibility in disrupted world, says Sanjeev Sanyal

Sanjeev Sanyal, Member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council, told Firstpost the old world order is falling apart and a new one has not yet emerged. He said India must stay flexible through multi-alignment, working with the Quad, BRICS, the European Union or the Global South depending on the issue. Citing oil prices above $100 a barrel and US tariff uncertainty, he called 7.8% GDP growth very good and said sustaining around 7% would be a strong outcome.

Written by AI from Firstpost — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 23 Sept 2026, 9:33 am IST

Source

Firstpost — India · read the original report ↗

#economy#gdp growth#foreign policy#tariffs#artificial intelligence#eac-pm

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

India recorded 7.8% GDP growth, which Sanyal calls 'very good' while saying around 7% would be a strong outcome. — Figure appears in source, attributed to Sanjeev Sanyal, EAC-PM member, in a Firstpost interview.
Oil prices are well above $100 per barrel. — Stated by Sanyal in the interview; no independent data or date cited in the source.
China will struggle to grow 4% and the US 2%. — Sanyal's own projection; no source or agency data given.
Nearly 10 million Indians live in the Middle East and send large remittances. — Asserted by Sanyal without a cited data source.
Press Note 3 was significantly changed about six months to a year ago. — Sanyal's recollection, stated with uncertainty about timing; unverified in source.

Written by AI from Firstpost — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · How we use AI · Report an error

Analysts’ view opinion

AI Economic Analyst

The core economic message in Sanyal's remarks is that India's growth rate is no longer fully in India's own hands — oil prices, tariffs and wars are doing much of the driving. Praising the 7.8 per cent print as exceptional while saying around 7 per cent would be a strong outcome ahead is, in effect, an expectations reset. With oil above $100 a barrel and US tariff uncertainty unresolved, the import bill, inflation and export order books are all exposed, which makes "multi-alignment" less a diplomatic slogan than a cost-management strategy.

For a large energy importer, oil above $100 a barrel pressures the import bill and raises transport and input costs, with part of the burden eventually showing up in consumer prices.
The threat of US tariffs over Russian oil purchases sets cheaper energy against export-market risk — a direct cost-versus-access trade-off.
Sanyal flags a two-way West Asia exposure: remittances from roughly 10 million Indians in the region, and Gulf demand for Indian food and other exports.
His defence of the new GDP series follows standard statistical logic — rebasing can lower the level of GDP while raising the measured growth rate, which he says cut India's dollar ranking even as growth looked faster; fully settling the critics' doubts still requires the data to withstand open scrutiny.
On UPI's MDR, his "somebody has to pay" point is plain economics: fees on merchants can be partly passed to consumers, though he explicitly said he has not worked on the numbers.

What to watch — Watch whether oil stays above $100 and whether US tariff policy gains clarity — those two variables will largely decide if growth holds near 7 per cent in coming quarters, along with how MDR rates are finally structured.

This is one advisory council member's assessment, not policy: the story establishes no revised official growth forecast, no tariff decision and no MDR rate details — and he himself said he lacks the MDR data.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 6 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

Sanjeev Sanyal, a Member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM), told Firstpost in an exclusive interview that the world is in a "disrupted" phase where the old order is falling apart and a new one has not yet emerged. He argued India's answer is "multi-alignment" — working with the Quad, BRICS, the European Union or the Global South depending on the issue rather than following a single rigid bloc. The interview also covered the economic backdrop: oil above $100 a barrel, conflicts in West Asia and the Russia-Ukraine war, US tariff threats over Russian oil purchases, the new GDP series, UPI MDR charges, engagement with China and AI regulation.

Key facts

Sanjeev Sanyal is a Member of the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (EAC-PM); the interview was published by Firstpost on September 23, 2026.
Sanyal called India's recent 7.8 per cent GDP growth print "very good" and "exceptionally good for the circumstance", but said anything around 7 per cent would be "very, very good".
He said oil prices are "well above $100 per barrel right now", directly hitting India as a large energy importer.
Almost 10 million Indians live in the Middle East, a "contingent risk" to India; they also send large remittances and Gulf states import many Indian goods, including food.
He cited comparative growth: China "will struggle to do 4 per cent" and the US is "struggling to do 2 per cent".
On the new GDP series: the old 2011 base could not be updated on time because 2020, 2021 and 2022 data were not representative; 2024 numbers were awaited to build a base.
Rebasing lowered India's nominal dollar GDP rank — from being close to third largest under the old series to about fourth or possibly fifth — while raising the growth rate.
Press Note 3 was "significantly changed about 6 months ago or a year ago", signalling calibrated opening to Chinese investment on India's own terms.

Timeline

2011Base year of the earlier national accounts series, later criticised (including by the IMF) as outdated.
2020, 2021, 2022Disruptive years whose statistics were judged unrepresentative for use as a new base year.
Around a decade agoUPI-type digital payments were kept free of charge to drive wide adoption, as per Sanyal's account.
2024Numbers awaited and then used to construct the new GDP base series.
About 6 months to a year before the interviewPress Note 3 on foreign investment from neighbouring countries significantly changed.
September 23, 2026Firstpost publishes the interview with Sanjeev Sanyal.

Who has a stake

Government of India / policymakers — Must sustain growth and secure energy supplies while managing US tariff threats and a fluid global order through multi-alignment.
EAC-PM (Sanjeev Sanyal) — Advises on economic strategy; defends the new GDP series and argues for flexibility over fixed growth targets.
Nearly 10 million Indians in the Middle East — Their safety and remittance flows are exposed to West Asian conflict and disruption at Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb.
Indian exporters to the Gulf — Gulf countries are large buyers of Indian food and other exports; regional conflict threatens these markets.
Merchants and UPI users — MDR charges raise the question of who pays for payments infrastructure and whether costs pass to consumers.
NITI Aayog and Finance Ministry — Sanyal assumes they have done the arithmetic on MDR levels and trade-offs.
Workers facing AI-driven layoffs — Old jobs may be wiped out; Sanyal argues for labour market flexibility rather than regulation to protect existing jobs.

Why it matters

A senior government adviser is publicly framing India's strategy for a world without a settled order: stay flexible, avoid rigid alliances, and treat around 7 per cent growth as a strong outcome rather than chase headline targets. The interview also clarifies the official defence of the rebased GDP series, which lowered India's dollar-GDP ranking while raising measured growth, and signals calibrated engagement with China after changes to Press Note 3. On AI, the warning against regulating to protect old jobs sets up a live policy debate over technology adoption versus employment protection.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

EAC-PM: Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister; Sanjeev Sanyal is a Member.
Multi-alignment: India working issue-wise with Quad, BRICS, the European Union and the Global South.
Chokepoints named as disrupted: Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb.
Press Note 3 governs FDI from neighbouring countries; significantly changed within the past year, per Sanyal.
GDP rebasing: old series base was 2011; new base built using 2024 numbers after 2020-22 were deemed unrepresentative.
MDR (Merchant Discount Rate) on UPI: the question of who funds payments infrastructure as volumes grow.

Mains framing

India's external environment is simultaneously strained on several fronts — oil well above $100 a barrel, conflict in West Asia affecting nearly 10 million Indian workers and remittance flows, the renewed Russia-Ukraine war, and US threats of tariffs on India for buying Russian energy. Sanyal's prescription is institutional flexibility rather than bloc loyalty: multi-alignment across Quad, BRICS, the EU and the Global South, chosen issue by issue, which he concedes is harder work than a "neat and clean" approach. On the economy, he rejects fixed growth targets in favour of driving to "road conditions", calling 7.8 per cent exceptional and around 7 per cent creditable when China may struggle at 4 per cent and the US at 2 per cent. The statistical rebasing debate is defended on technical grounds — reducing weights of older sectors lowers the level of GDP (costing India a dollar-GDP rank) while raising the measured growth rate, which he argues is the truer picture. On China, engagement is to be calibrated: red lines around telecom and strategic control, but no blanket bar on ordinary trade. On AI, he supports regulation for safety and "humans in the loop" but warns against luddite job-protection rules, invoking the historical cost of clinging to old technology. The way forward he implies: build buffers, keep labour markets flexible, adopt new technology fast, and make trade-offs explicit — including on who pays for digital payments infrastructure.

Key terms

EAC-PM: Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, an advisory body on economic policy; Sanjeev Sanyal is a Member.
Multi-alignment: India's approach of partnering issue-by-issue with different groupings — Quad, BRICS, EU, Global South — instead of one fixed alliance.
Press Note 3: India's rule framework on foreign investment from neighbouring countries; Sanyal says it was significantly changed within the past year.
MDR (Merchant Discount Rate): The fee a merchant pays on a digital payment transaction; its extension to UPI raises who-pays questions.
GDP rebasing: Updating the base year and sector weights of national accounts; lowers the old GDP level but can raise the measured growth rate.
Bab-el-Mandeb: A maritime chokepoint Sanyal cites, along with the Strait of Hormuz, as currently troubled and disrupted.

Practice questions

"Multi-alignment is a response to a disrupted world order rather than a doctrine." Discuss with reference to India's engagement with the Quad, BRICS, the EU and the Global South.
Examine how rebasing national accounts can simultaneously lower a country's nominal GDP ranking and raise its measured growth rate. What does this imply for public debate on growth statistics?
Should AI regulation aim to protect existing jobs or to preserve labour market flexibility? Critically evaluate in the Indian context.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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