Nifty technical setup extremely weak, says Osho Krishan

The Nifty50 logged a seventh consecutive weekly decline, slipping to a 25-week low after a mid-week sell-off breached key supports, and settled around 23,140, down nearly 0.90% for the week. Osho Krishan, chief manager for technical and derivative research at Angel One, said the technical setup remains extremely weak. He flagged 23,000 as key support, with a breakdown opening 22,800-22,700, and resistance at 23,280-23,350 and 23,500-23,550. He recommended buying Balrampur Chini, HBL Engineering and Bank of Maharashtra.

Written by AI from Business Standard · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 28 Sept 2026, 8:24 am IST

Source

Business Standard · read the original report ↗

#nifty#stock market#technical analysis#stock picks#angel one

Desk check · some claims need care

What the desk checked (4)

Nifty50 fell for a seventh straight week, settling near 23,140, down about 0.90% — Figures appear in the source and are attributed to the author's weekly review; not independently verified here.
The index hit a 25-week low after a mid-week sell-off breached key supports — Stated in the source without external data citation; internally consistent with the reported close.
23,000 is key support; a breakdown could take the index to 22,800-22,700, with resistance at 23,280-23,350 and 23,500-23,550 — Forward-looking technical opinion of the author, clearly framed as a view.
Buy calls on Balrampur Chini (TGT ₹760-770), HBL Engineering (TGT ₹875-900) and Bank of Maharashtra (TGT ₹95-98) — Recommendations and last-close prices are as given in the source, with a disclaimer that views are the author's own.

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Analysts’ view opinion

AI Economic Analyst

Seven straight losing weeks and a 25-week low is not a one-day wobble — it is a trend. The economically important point is that, as the note itself says, the weakness is being driven by the broader macro backdrop and negative global and domestic developments, meaning the problem sits in sentiment and fundamentals more than in the charts. With 23,000 described as a psychological last line of support, a break there could accelerate losses; yet buy calls on individual stocks within the same weak market suggest this is a selective de-rating rather than an across-the-board collapse.

Seven consecutive weekly declines point to sustained erosion of investor confidence, not a passing bout of selling.
A 0.90% weekly fall looks modest in isolation, but compounded weekly losses steadily dent portfolio values, particularly for retail and SIP investors.
Put writing at 23,000 means the support is derivative-driven; if it gives way, the slide toward 22,800-22,700 could pick up speed.
The note's emphasis on global developments as the key catalyst reflects how dependent the domestic market has become on foreign flows and offshore risk appetite.
Buy recommendations in sugar, engineering and a public-sector bank imply sector dispersion — the pain is not uniform.

What to watch — Whether 23,000 holds or the decline accelerates toward 22,800-22,700; only a sustained move above 23,500-23,550 would signal the downtrend has genuinely turned.

This is one technical analyst's personal view; the story does not specify which macro or global developments are driving the fall, nor does it give any data on foreign or domestic fund flows, and it is not investment advice.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 5 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The Nifty50, the NSE benchmark index of 50 large stocks, has been in a sustained downtrend, falling for a seventh straight week in the week ending before September 28. A sharp mid-week sell-off broke key technical support levels and pushed the index to a 25-week low, with it settling near 23,140, down about 0.90% for the week. In this technical commentary, Osho Krishan, chief manager for technical and derivative research at Angel One, argues the chart setup is "extremely weak" and identifies 23,000 as the last line of defence for buyers. The piece also carries three stock buy recommendations, with the disclaimer that views are the author's own and readers' discretion is advised.

Key facts

The Nifty50 recorded its seventh consecutive week of decline, settling around the 23,140 zone, down nearly 0.90% for the week.
A sharp mid-week sell-off breached key technical support levels and dragged the Nifty50 to a 25-week low.
23,000 is identified as the key support; significant Put writing at this psychological level is called the last line of support for the bulls.
A decisive breakdown below 23,000 could accelerate the decline toward the 22,800-22,700 zone over the intermediate term.
On the upside, a bearish gap at 23,280-23,350 is the immediate hurdle; 23,500-23,550 is the crucial resistance zone whose breach could signal a trend reversal.
The weekly RSI offers limited support, and past rebounds of the 14-day RSI from oversold territory have not translated into meaningful price strength.
Buy recommendations dated September 28: Balrampur Chini (BALRAMCHIN) at Rs 675-670, stop-loss Rs 625, target Rs 760-770; last close Rs 685.
HBL Engineering (HBLENGINE) buy at Rs 790-780, SL Rs 720, target Rs 875-900 (last close Rs 806); Bank of Maharashtra (MAHABANK) buy at Rs 84-83, SL Rs 77, target Rs 95-98 (last close Rs 84).

Timeline

Start of the review weekThe week began subdued for the Nifty50, with no respite from selling pressure.
Mid-weekA sharp sell-off breached key technical support levels and dragged the index to a 25-week low.
Week closeNifty50 settled around 23,140, down nearly 0.90%, marking a seventh straight weekly decline.
September 28Stock recommendations issued: buy Balrampur Chini, HBL Engineering and Bank of Maharashtra.
Weekend aheadAnalyst advises closely monitoring global developments, seen as key catalysts for the domestic market setup.

Who has a stake

Retail and institutional investors in Indian equities — Seven weeks of losses erode portfolio value; advised to avoid aggressive positioning and follow prudent risk management until clarity emerges.
Osho Krishan, Angel One (technical & derivative research) — Author of the outlook and stock calls; his levels and recommendations guide client trading decisions.
Options writers at the 23,000 strike — Significant Put writing at 23,000 is the last support for bulls; a breakdown would expose these positions to losses.
Companies named — Balrampur Chini, HBL Engineering, Bank of Maharashtra — Flagged as bullish technical setups with specified entry, stop-loss and target levels.
Traders tracking global cues — Global and domestic developments are described as increasingly the key catalysts for the domestic market setup.

Why it matters

A seventh consecutive weekly fall to a 25-week low signals more than routine volatility: it points to a structurally weak market where even oversold technical readings have failed to spark recovery. With 23,000 described as the last line of defence, a breach could trigger another leg of correction toward 22,700, affecting household savings channelled into equities and market sentiment broadly.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

Nifty50 is the NSE benchmark index; in this week it closed around 23,140, a 25-week low, down nearly 0.90%.
Seven consecutive weekly declines for the Nifty50 were recorded as per the source.
Key support cited: 23,000; downside target on breakdown: 22,800-22,700; resistances: 23,280-23,350 and 23,500-23,550.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) rebounding from oversold territory did not produce price strength — a sign of a lower-bottom formation.
Put writing at a strike price indicates traders expect that level to hold as support.
Technical tools cited: SuperTrend, Inverted Head and Shoulders, 20/50-day EMA crossover, 100-DEMA, MACD histogram.

Mains framing

The Nifty50's seventh straight weekly fall to a 25-week low illustrates how technical structure and macro sentiment reinforce each other in equity markets. The source attributes the weakness to persistent negative global and domestic developments, a "lower-bottom" chart formation, and the failure of oversold RSI readings to generate price strength — implying that momentum indicators alone cannot arrest a decline when fundamental triggers are absent. The concentration of Put writing at the psychological 23,000 level shows how derivative positioning itself can create or remove support: if that level fails, forced unwinding can accelerate the correction toward 22,800-22,700. For investors, the implication is procedural rather than directional — the recommended way forward is a cautious stance, avoidance of aggressive positioning, close monitoring of global cues that have "increasingly emerged as key catalysts," and adherence to prudent risk management (defined stop-losses, staggered accumulation on retests of breakout zones) until a sustained move above 23,500-23,550 signals a genuine reversal. The episode also underlines why such commentary carries a disclaimer: technical calls are probabilistic views, not assurances, and readers' discretion is advised.

Key terms

Nifty50: The National Stock Exchange's benchmark index; here it closed around 23,140 at a 25-week low.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A momentum indicator; readings in 'oversold territory' suggest heavy selling, though here rebounds did not lift prices.
Put writing: Selling put options at a strike (here 23,000), signalling expectation that the level will hold as support.
Support and resistance: Price zones where buying or selling tends to emerge; support at 23,000, resistance at 23,280-23,350 and 23,500-23,550.
EMA / DEMA crossover: Exponential moving average signals; a positive 20-50 day crossover (HBL Engg) and 100-DEMA cushion (MAHABANK) were cited as bullish.
Inverted Head and Shoulders: A candlestick reversal pattern signalling a shift from downtrend to uptrend, cited for HBL Engineering.

Practice questions

Discuss how derivative market positioning, such as concentrated Put writing at a key strike, can influence price support in the cash market. Illustrate with the Nifty50's 23,000 level.
Technical indicators such as RSI signalled oversold conditions, yet the Nifty50 continued to decline. Critically examine the limits of technical analysis in a weak macro environment.
What risk-management practices should retail investors adopt during an extended market downtrend? Refer to the guidance of avoiding aggressive positioning and using stop-losses.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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