Pakistan's deepening Ethiopia ties seen as signal for India

The brief

Context

Pakistan has long sought to become a defence exporter and a player in Africa, and under its Engage Africa Policy it has widened engagement in the Horn of Africa. An analysis by Observer Research Foundation Fellow Samir Bhattacharya argues that Pakistan's once-limited diplomatic contact with Ethiopia has become a multidimensional partnership covering trade, connectivity, education, healthcare and political cooperation. Ethiopia matters because it sits near the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and hosts the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa. India, a long-standing partner of Ethiopia in education, trade, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure, now faces another South Asian competitor in a space where it has traditionally been dominant.

Key facts

• Earlier this year Pakistan sought to supply Sudan with weapons and jets worth US$1.5 billion; the deal was dropped after Saudi Arabia backed out at the last moment.
• In January 2025, Pakistan and Ethiopia signed a Memorandum of Understanding for regular bilateral political consultations.
• Trade, aviation, agriculture, technology and education were jointly identified as priority sectors for Pakistan-Ethiopia engagement.
• Ethiopia hosts the African Union headquarters, giving Pakistan a diplomatic gateway to African politics and institutions.
• Ethiopian Airlines operates direct Karachi-Addis Ababa flights, improving connectivity for trade and people-to-people contact.
• Pakistan has held a single-country exhibition in Addis Ababa and business forums between chambers of commerce.
• Pakistan's Africa outreach is framed under its Engage Africa Policy, aimed partly at diversifying beyond Muslim-majority Africa.
• Both Pakistan (via CPEC) and Ethiopia have strong economic ties with China under the Belt and Road framework, raising the prospect of trilateral economic linkages.

Timeline

1. Earlier in 2025Pakistan's proposed US$1.5 billion arms and jets deal with Sudan collapses after Saudi Arabia backs out at the last moment.
2. January 2025Pakistan and Ethiopia sign an MoU for regular bilateral political consultations, formalising cooperation.
3. Recent years (undated)Pakistan participates in a single-country exhibition in Addis Ababa and chamber-of-commerce business forums; Ethiopian Airlines runs direct Karachi-Addis Ababa flights.

Who has a stake

• Pakistan — Seeks defence exports, African market access and a diplomatic gateway to the African Union via Ethiopia under its Engage Africa Policy.
• Ethiopia — Gains a new South Asian trade and political partner; leverages its Horn of Africa location and AU host status.
• India — Long-standing investments in Ethiopia's education, trade, pharmaceuticals and infrastructure; risks diplomatic competition for influence in African institutions.
• China — Could link its BRI presence in Ethiopia with CPEC in Pakistan, potentially building trilateral economic linkages.
• Saudi Arabia and Türkiye — Pakistan hopes to piggyback on them, and on the Mecca Pact, to open a window into the Horn of Africa.
• African Union — Its Addis Ababa headquarters is the arena where Indian and Pakistani diplomatic outreach may compete.

Why it matters

The Horn of Africa sits astride the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, on maritime routes linking Asia, Africa and Europe, so any new outside presence there affects Indian Ocean strategy. Pakistan's outreach could win African diplomatic support in forums such as the UN and the OIC, where India also courts votes on UN reform, climate change and global governance. The analysis frames this less as a direct threat than a signal that India's traditional advantages in Africa can no longer be assumed.