Data review tests whether BRICS summit promises are delivered

The brief

Context

BRICS — begun as Brazil, Russia, India, China, joined by South Africa in 2011 and substantially expanded in the 2020s — is a bloc of emerging economies seeking a bigger voice in a Western-dominated world order. It has no enforcement treaty or central authority; its main instrument is the political agreement recorded in each summit's declaration. The 18th BRICS summit in New Delhi on September 12-13 produced a 140-paragraph declaration covering global governance, the UN, IMF, trade, finance, climate and technology. The story tests such promises against three measurable records: the University of Toronto BRICS Research Group's compliance scores, the New Development Bank's approvals, disbursements and lending currencies, and long-standing unmet demands such as IMF quota realignment.

Key facts

• The New Delhi declaration, the 18th in the annual series, contains 140 numbered paragraphs; the summit was held on September 12-13.
• Commitments per summit grew from 15 at Yekaterinburg (2009) to 137 at Kazan (2024) by the BRICS Research Group's count; Brazil's chair counted 126 in the 2025 Rio declaration.
• Grouping-wide compliance was 89 per cent after Goa (2016) and 85 per cent after Johannesburg (2018), fell to 40 per cent after the 2023 Johannesburg summit, and recovered to 61 per cent after Kazan (2024).
• India recorded full compliance after Sanya (2011), 95 per cent after Goa (2016), 25 per cent after the 2023 Johannesburg summit (lowest of the five that year), and 69 per cent after Kazan.
• The NDB, agreed at Fortaleza in 2014 with $100 billion authorised and $50 billion subscribed capital shared equally by five founders, has cumulatively approved $43.0 billion for 139 projects and disbursed $24.2 billion; live portfolio 115 projects worth $35.59 billion at end-2025.
• Portfolio shares at end-2025: China $9.41 billion (26.4 per cent), India $8.86 billion (24.9 per cent), Brazil $6.69 billion, South Africa $6.41 billion, Russia $3.78 billion (transactions on hold since March 2022).
• NDB local-currency financing was 45.9 per cent of 2025 approvals and 29.3 per cent of the portfolio against a 30 per cent target for 2022-26; renminbi alone is 21.5 per cent, rand 6.8 per cent, rupee 1.0 per cent, dollar 59.5 per cent.
• IMF quota shares have not changed since the 14th review approved in 2010 (effective 2016); the 16th review concluded in December 2023 with a 50 per cent equiproportional increase; emerging economies produce about 60 per cent of world output but hold about 40 per cent of votes, and the US alone holds

Timeline

1. 2009 (Yekaterinburg)First BRIC summit; 15 commitments; BRICS begins asking for IMF quota realignment in every declaration.
2. 2010Members approve the IMF's 14th quota review; it takes effect only in 2016 after US Congress ratification.
3. 2011South Africa joins; BRICS Research Group begins assessing compliance from the Sanya summit, where India records full compliance.
4. 2014 (Fortaleza)New Development Bank agreed and Contingent Reserve Arrangement treaty signed, committing $100 billion.
5. 2016NDB opens in Shanghai and makes its first loans; Goa Declaration welcomes experts exploring a BRICS rating agency, which is deferred; grouping compliance 89 per cent.
6. 2017 (Xiamen)Declaration silent on the proposed BRICS credit rating agency; a decade later none is in operation.
7. March 2022NDB puts its Russian transactions on hold; Russia's approvals line flattens thereafter.
8. 2023Compliance falls to 40 per cent grouping-wide and 25 per cent for India after the Johannesburg summit; NDB misses its aim of a first rupee bond by October 2023.
9. December 2023IMF's 16th review concludes with a 50 per cent equiproportional quota increase; no change in voting shares.
10. December 2024RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das says de-dollarisation is not the objective; NDB local-currency share is 24.2 per cent.

Who has a stake

• India (chair) — Chairing lifts compliance scores; second-largest NDB borrower with $8.86 billion approved and 60 per cent disbursed, but only 1.0 per cent of the portfolio in rupees.
• China — Largest NDB portfolio share ($9.41 billion) and highest disbursement rate (about 75 per cent); the renminbi supplies nearly three-quarters of local-currency lending.
• New Development Bank — Its approvals, disbursements and currency mix are the hardest test of whether BRICS builds institutions that outlast declarations.
• Russia — Trails at $3.78 billion after the bank put its transactions on hold in March 2022.
• IMF and the United States — The US holds 17.42 per cent of quotas against an 85 per cent supermajority requirement, letting it block any realignment BRICS demands.
• BRICS Research Group, University of Toronto — Supplies the commitment counts and compliance scores that allow BRICS to be compared with the G7 and G20.
• Brazil and South Africa — Brazil has the lowest disbursement ratio at 51 per cent; South Africa had the highest CRA access-to-commitment ratio at two to one.

Why it matters

BRICS is judged mostly by the volume of its declarations, but the measurable record — compliance scores, money actually disbursed and the currency it is lent in — shows a far more uneven performance. The gap between $43.0 billion approved and $24.2 billion disbursed, and the dollar still funding three-fifths of the NDB's book, indicate how hard it is to convert summit language into delivery. For India, both as chair and as the bank's second-largest borrower, the test is whether it can raise its own compliance and delivery record while openly disclaiming de-dollarisation.