IMD forecasts heavy rain in west India till Tuesday

Several weather systems over west India are likely to renew intense weather activity till Tuesday, the India Meteorological Department said. Heavy rain is forecast over central Maharashtra on Monday and Tuesday, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over multiple parts of west India till Tuesday. A low pressure area is likely to form over the Andaman Sea on Saturday and move towards south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in three to four days. Telangana may get heavy rain from Sunday to Wednesday. Monsoon withdrawal conditions are turning favourable over west Rajasthan on Saturday.

Written by AI from Weather & IMD forecasts · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 18 Sept 2026, 5:38 pm IST

Source

Weather & IMD forecasts · read the original report ↗

#imd#monsoon#heavy rain#weather forecast#low pressure area

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (4)

Heavy rainfall is likely over central Maharashtra on Monday and Tuesday, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over parts of west India till Tuesday. — Attributed to the India Meteorological Department in the source.
A low pressure area is likely to form over the Andaman Sea on Saturday and move towards south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in three to four days. — Attributed to the weather bureau; forecast, not a confirmed event.
Telangana is likely to receive heavy rainfall from Sunday to Wednesday; Karnataka on Sunday and Monday; Kerala till Sunday. — Figures and days appear in the source, attributed to IMD.
Conditions are becoming favourable for southwest monsoon withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan on Saturday. — Attributed to the weather department in the source.

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Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

This is a weather bulletin, but its political consequences are easy to read — once the IMD issues an advance warning, the ball moves to the state governments' court. If damage follows in central Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha or the north Andhra coast despite the forecast, ruling parties will have to answer the familiar opposition charge of "warned but unprepared". Equally, governments that are seen responding early get a low-cost chance to display administrative competence.

A public advance forecast raises the accountability bar — it becomes harder to dismiss relief failures as an unforeseeable natural event.
Because warnings span several states at once — Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Bihar and the northeast — Centre-state coordination and relief allocation could quickly become a political talking point.
The standard political script is predictable: chief ministerial field visits, review meetings and compensation announcements once the rain passes.
If crops are hit, farmer compensation and insurance payouts are the likeliest flashpoint, though the story records no damage at all so far.
Urban waterlogging and drainage failure, if they occur, would put direct pressure on local bodies and municipal leadership.

What to watch — Watch how quickly the affected states move on pre-emptive evacuations, closures and review meetings between Sunday and Wednesday — that timeline will frame the political argument afterwards.

This is only an IMD forecast; the story establishes nothing about actual damage, government preparedness measures or any political reaction.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 10 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued a forecast on Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026, warning that a cluster of weather systems over western India would renew intense rainfall activity till Tuesday. The systems include a cyclonic circulation over Marathwada, a trough extending from it to the Gulf of Mannar, and a low pressure area over Saurashtra and the adjoining northeast Arabian Sea. Separately, a new low pressure area is expected to form over the Andaman Sea on Saturday and track towards the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts. At the same time, conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan on Saturday.

Key facts

IMD said heavy rainfall is likely over central Maharashtra on Monday and Tuesday, with thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over multiple parts of west India till Tuesday.
The west India activity is attributed to a cyclonic circulation over Marathwada, a trough from it to the Gulf of Mannar, and a low pressure area over Saurashtra and the adjoining northeast Arabian Sea.
A low pressure area is likely to form over the Andaman Sea on Saturday under the influence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over north Thailand.
That low pressure area is expected to intensify gradually and move towards the south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh coasts in the subsequent three to four days.
A trough runs from Sikkim to north Odisha; parts of Odisha may get heavy rainfall intermittently till Wednesday.
An upper air cyclonic circulation over Assam is expected to bring heavy rainfall over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Saturday, and over Assam and Meghalaya intermittently till Monday.
A western disturbance acting as a cyclonic circulation lies over Himachal Pradesh and an upper air cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh, bringing heavy showers over east Rajasthan till Friday.
Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from parts of west Rajasthan on Saturday.

Timeline

Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026IMD issues the forecast citing several weather systems over west India and elsewhere.
FridayHeavy rainfall likely over parts of West Bengal and Sikkim, Bihar and east Rajasthan; hot and humid conditions over parts of Kerala till Friday.
Friday to SundayAndaman and Nicobar Islands may receive heavy rainfall.
SaturdayLow pressure area likely to form over the Andaman Sea; heavy rain over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura; monsoon withdrawal conditions favourable over parts of west Rajasthan.
Till SundayHeavy rainfall expected over parts of Kerala.
Sunday and MondayMost parts of Karnataka likely to receive heavy rainfall.
Sunday to WednesdayHeavy showers likely over parts of Chhattisgarh; Telangana likely to receive heavy rainfall.
Till MondayAssam and Meghalaya may receive heavy rainfall intermittently.
Monday and TuesdayHeavy rainfall likely over central Maharashtra; thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds over parts of west India till Tuesday.
Till WednesdayHeavy rain intermittently over Odisha and Andhra Pradesh; heavy showers over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.

Who has a stake

India Meteorological Department (IMD) — The national forecaster issuing rainfall warnings and declaring monsoon withdrawal conditions.
Central Maharashtra and Marathwada residents — Face heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday, plus thunderstorms, lightning and gusty winds from the Marathwada cyclonic circulation.
Coastal Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh communities — In the likely track of the intensifying Andaman Sea low pressure area, with heavy rain expected in three to four days.
Northeast India states (Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura) — Heavy rainfall from an upper air cyclonic circulation over Assam, on Saturday and intermittently till Monday.
West Rajasthan farmers and administration — Southwest monsoon withdrawal from Saturday marks the end of the rain season and shapes rabi sowing decisions; not stated further in the source.
South Indian states (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh) — Heavy rain spells till Wednesday linked to the Marathwada-Gulf of Mannar trough.

Why it matters

A simultaneous set of low pressure areas, troughs, cyclonic circulations and a western disturbance means heavy rain risk stretching from the Arabian Sea coast to the Bay of Bengal coast and the Northeast within the same week. The Andaman Sea system's expected movement towards the Odisha-Andhra coast is the kind of set-up that drives coastal flooding and disaster preparedness alerts. At the same time, the start of monsoon withdrawal from west Rajasthan signals the seasonal turn, with implications for water storage and the sowing calendar.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

IMD is India's national weather forecasting agency; it announces onset and withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.
Southwest monsoon withdrawal typically begins from west Rajasthan; IMD saw conditions turning favourable there on Saturday (per Sept. 17, 2026 forecast).
Gulf of Mannar lies between southeastern Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka; a trough from Marathwada to the Gulf of Mannar was driving south India rain.
A low pressure area was expected to form over the Andaman Sea and move to the south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts.
Western disturbances are extratropical systems; one was acting as a cyclonic circulation over Himachal Pradesh.
Saurashtra and the adjoining northeast Arabian Sea hosted a low pressure area influencing west India weather.

Mains framing

The Sept. 17, 2026 IMD bulletin illustrates how late-monsoon Indian weather is governed by the overlap of multiple synoptic systems rather than a single one: a cyclonic circulation over Marathwada with a trough to the Gulf of Mannar, a low pressure area over Saurashtra and the northeast Arabian Sea, a Sikkim-to-north Odisha trough, an upper air circulation over Assam, a western disturbance over Himachal Pradesh, and a fresh low pressure area forming over the Andaman Sea under an upper air circulation over north Thailand. The consequence is near-simultaneous heavy rain warnings across west, east, northeast and south India, even as withdrawal begins from west Rajasthan - a reminder that withdrawal in the northwest does not mean the end of extreme rainfall elsewhere. Implications run to urban drainage, lightning and gusty-wind fatalities, standing kharif crops, and coastal preparedness where the Andaman Sea system is forecast to track towards Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh. The way forward, on the evidence in the source, is sequenced district-level warning uptake: using the three-to-four day lead time on the Bay system for coastal readiness, issuing thunderstorm and lightning advisories in west India through Tuesday, and aligning rabi planning in west Rajasthan with the withdrawal signal.

Key terms

Low pressure area: A region of relatively low atmospheric pressure that draws in moist air and can intensify; one was expected over the Andaman Sea on Saturday.
Cyclonic circulation: A rotating wind pattern around a low pressure centre; ones over Marathwada, Assam, Himachal Pradesh and west Uttar Pradesh were cited.
Trough: An elongated zone of low pressure; troughs ran from Marathwada to the Gulf of Mannar and from Sikkim to north Odisha.
Western disturbance: A weather system moving in from the west; one was acting as a cyclonic circulation over Himachal Pradesh.
Monsoon withdrawal: The seasonal retreat of the southwest monsoon; conditions were becoming favourable over parts of west Rajasthan on Saturday.
Upper air cyclonic circulation: A cyclonic circulation seen at higher atmospheric levels rather than at the surface; one lay over north Thailand and another over Assam.

Practice questions

Explain how the interaction of troughs, cyclonic circulations and low pressure areas produces simultaneous heavy rainfall over widely separated parts of India, using the IMD forecast of September 2026 as an example.
Discuss the significance of southwest monsoon withdrawal beginning from west Rajasthan for agriculture and water management, even as heavy rain warnings continue over peninsular and eastern India.
How can short lead-time forecasts of Bay of Bengal low pressure systems be translated into effective coastal disaster preparedness in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh?

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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