Gold, silver likely to stay under pressure, says analyst
Gold and silver prices are expected to remain under pressure in the coming days, according to Abhilash Koikkara, Head - Forex & Commodities at Nuvama Professional Clients Group. For MCX Gold, he cited a current price of Rs 151,900, a target of Rs 144,000 and a stop loss of Rs 155,000, with 148,000 as key support and 155,000 as resistance. For silver, CMP is Rs 235,200, target Rs 225,000 and stop loss Rs 242,000. He linked volatility to a US Federal Reserve rate hike and rising Treasury yields.
Source
Times of India — Top · read the original report ↗
Desk check · some claims need care
What the desk checked (5)
- Gold and silver prices are expected to remain under pressure in coming days — Attributed to Abhilash Koikkara, Head - Forex & Commodities, Nuvama Professional Clients Group
- MCX Gold CMP Rs 151,900, target Rs 144,000, stop loss Rs 155,000; support at 148,000 and resistance at 155,000 — Figures appear in source as part of the analyst's stated trading strategy
- MCX Silver CMP Rs 235,200, target Rs 225,000, stop loss Rs 242,000; support 225,000, resistance 242,000 and 248,000 — Figures appear in source as the analyst's strategy levels
- A hike in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision added to price volatility — Stated in source without attribution to any Fed statement or data; editor should verify
- Views are those of the expert and not of The Times of India — Explicit disclaimer carried in the source text
Analysts’ view opinion
This is not a story about gold collapsing — it is a story about interest rates. With the US Federal Reserve raising rates and Treasury yields climbing, the basic economics of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver turns less attractive, which is exactly the pressure the analyst is describing. His call is for MCX gold to slide from Rs 1,51,900 towards Rs 1,44,000 and silver from Rs 2,35,200 towards Rs 2,25,000 — roughly 5% and 4% corrections — while he himself stresses the base trend stays positive, making this a correction rather than a trend reversal.
- When rates and bond yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding assets that pay no interest goes up — that is the core economic driver behind the current weakness in both metals.
- A correction shifts value towards buyers: households with wedding or jewellery demand get a cheaper entry, while recent investors who bought near the highs carry the mark-to-market pain.
- The analyst frames the move as range-bound — Rs 1,48,000–1,55,000 for gold and Rs 2,25,000–2,42,000 for silver — implying choppiness rather than a one-way slide.
- Softer silver could ease input costs for industrial users such as solar and electronics, though this story does not quantify or claim any such effect.
- These are short-horizon technical calls with targets and stop losses attached, not a framework for long-term household savings decisions.
What to watch — Watch whether gold holds above Rs 1,48,000 and silver above Rs 2,25,000 on a closing basis — holding those levels turns the dip into an accumulation window, while a decisive break could open another leg of selling.
This is one analyst's technical opinion; the story does not establish the specifics of the rate decision, the pass-through to retail jewellery prices, or any demand data — and it is not investment advice.
Deep dive
Research brief · 8 facts · 3 dates · exam-readyThe brief
Context
Gold and silver futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have entered a corrective phase after a run-up to recent highs. In a market outlook, Abhilash Koikkara, Head - Forex & Commodities at Nuvama Professional Clients Group, says both metals are likely to stay under pressure in the near term, though the broader trend remains positive and dips could be accumulation opportunities. He attributes the added volatility to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision — described in the source as a hike — and rising US Treasury yields, which reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as silver.
Key facts
- MCX Gold: current market price Rs 151,900, target Rs 144,000, stop loss Rs 155,000, as per Abhilash Koikkara of Nuvama Professional Clients Group.
- Gold's first important support is Rs 148,000; a sustained break below could extend the decline toward the Rs 144,000-140,000 zone.
- Gold's key resistance is Rs 155,000; a sustained daily close above it would negate the intermediate bearish bias and signal resumption of the bullish move.
- MCX Silver: current market price Rs 235,200, target Rs 225,000, stop loss Rs 242,000.
- Silver's strong weekly support is Rs 225,000; a firm close below it would shift the bias to negative.
- Silver's immediate resistance is Rs 242,000, with Rs 248,000 the next resistance; a move above Rs 248,000 would confirm a bullish bias.
- The source cites a hike in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision as adding to price volatility in the week ahead.
- Rising US Treasury yields are named as a key factor influencing precious metals, since higher yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.
Timeline
- Recent past (date not stated in the source)Gold and silver pull back from their highs; the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (described as a hike) is announced.
- Start of the current weekGold trades with lower lows and takes out the previous week's low, keeping the weekly trend leaning toward further correction.
- Sessions/week aheadBoth metals expected to stay under pressure; gold seen consolidating with Rs 148,000 support and Rs 155,000 resistance, silver targeting Rs 225,000 support.
Who has a stake
- Retail and HNI commodity traders on MCX — Entry, target and stop-loss levels for gold (Rs 151,900 CMP) and silver (Rs 235,200 CMP) decide near-term gains or losses.
- Nuvama Professional Clients Group — Its Forex & Commodities head, Abhilash Koikkara, has issued the outlook and trading strategy being acted upon by clients.
- US Federal Reserve — Its interest rate decision is cited as a driver of volatility in precious metal prices.
- Long-term gold and silver investors — The analyst frames the correction toward support as an accumulation opportunity, not a trend reversal.
- Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) — The venue where these gold and silver contracts and price levels are traded.
Why it matters
Gold and silver are core household savings and hedging assets in India, so a corrective phase in MCX prices directly affects investor sentiment, jewellery demand decisions and trading positions. The episode also shows how a US Federal Reserve rate action and rising Treasury yields transmit into Indian commodity prices, since higher yields make non-yielding assets less attractive.
UPSC angle
Prelims pointers
- MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange) is the platform for gold and silver futures cited in the outlook.
- Gold levels to remember: CMP Rs 151,900, support Rs 148,000, resistance Rs 155,000, target Rs 144,000, downside zone Rs 144,000-140,000.
- Silver levels: CMP Rs 235,200, support Rs 225,000, resistances Rs 242,000 and Rs 248,000.
- Higher US Treasury yields and interest rates reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
- The outlook is by Abhilash Koikkara, Head - Forex & Commodities, Nuvama Professional Clients Group.
- Support = price floor where buying emerges; resistance = ceiling where selling emerges — basic technical analysis terms.
Mains framing
The near-term weakness in MCX gold and silver illustrates how global monetary policy shapes domestic commodity markets: the source attributes the volatility to the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision (described as a hike) and rising US Treasury yields, which raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver and pull prices into a corrective, sideways-to-bearish phase. Technically, the analyst sees gold consolidating with Rs 148,000 as first support and Rs 155,000 as decisive resistance, and silver holding Rs 225,000 support against resistances at Rs 242,000 and Rs 248,000 — a breakdown below support could trigger another leg of selling, while a sustained close above resistance would restore the bullish trend. Importantly, the base trend is described as firmly positive, so the correction is framed as an accumulation opportunity rather than a reversal. For investors, the way forward implied by the source is disciplined level-based trading with defined stop losses, awareness that such recommendations are the analyst's own views, and recognition that precious metal prices in India remain hostage to external interest rate and bond yield cycles.
Key terms
- MCX
- Multi Commodity Exchange, the Indian exchange where the gold and silver futures contracts discussed here are traded.
- CMP
- Current market price — gold Rs 151,900 and silver Rs 235,200 in this outlook.
- Stop loss
- A pre-set exit price to cap losses if the trade moves against the view — Rs 155,000 for gold, Rs 242,000 for silver.
- Support and resistance
- Technical price levels where buying (support) or selling (resistance) is expected to dominate; gold Rs 148,000 and Rs 155,000.
- Non-yielding assets
- Assets like gold and silver that pay no interest or dividend, so they lose appeal when bond yields and interest rates rise.
- US Treasury yields
- Returns on US government bonds; their rise is cited as a key factor pressuring precious metals.
Practice questions
- How do US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and Treasury yield movements transmit to gold and silver prices in India? Discuss with reference to the current MCX correction.
- Gold is both a savings instrument and a speculative commodity in India. Examine the implications of sharp price corrections for households and for commodity exchanges.
- What are support, resistance and stop loss in commodity trading, and how can level-based strategies help manage risk during a corrective phase?
Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.