EV battery minerals worth ₹1.01 lakh crore by FY2040-41: Study

Retired electric vehicle batteries, currently classified as hazardous waste, could contain minerals worth ₹1,01,491 crore, or $11.94 billion, in India by FY2040-41, a working paper by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) estimates. It projects recovery of about 573 kilotonnes of minerals between FY2026-27 and FY2040-41, requiring 3,315 kilotonnes of recycling capacity and ₹55,057 crore in investment. India is fully import-dependent for lithium, nickel and cobalt.

Written by AI from Hindustan Times — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 29 Sept 2026, 10:10 am IST

Source

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#ev batteries#recycling#critical minerals#csep#electric vehicles

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

Retired EV batteries in India could contain minerals worth ₹1,01,491 crore ($11.94 billion) by FY2040-41. — Figure appears in source, attributed to a CSEP working paper; exchange rate of ₹85 to the dollar stated.
India could recover about 573 kt of minerals from EV batteries between FY2026-27 and FY2040-41. — Estimate given in the source paper; period-wise break-up of 23 kt, 118 kt and 432 kt is internally consistent with the total.
Annual EV sales are projected to reach 9.1 million in FY2030-31 and nearly 49.9 million by FY2037-38. — Projection stated in the paper; no external verification possible.
Building recycling capacity of 3,315 kt by FY2040-41 would need ₹55,057 crore in investment. — Figure appears in source; period-wise split of ₹2,028 crore, ₹11,169 crore and ₹41,826 crore matches the total.
India is 100% import-dependent for lithium, nickel and cobalt. — Stated in source with reference to Ministry of Mines classification of critical and strategic minerals.

Written by AI from Hindustan Times — India · not yet reviewed by an editor · How we use AI · Report an error

Analysts’ view opinion

AI Economic Analyst

This is less a waste story than an import-bill story. With India 100% dependent on imports for lithium, nickel and cobalt, CSEP's estimate that retired batteries could hold ₹1.01 lakh crore of minerals by FY2040-41 reframes end-of-life packs as a domestic resource base. But capturing it needs ₹55,057 crore of investment and 3,315 kt of capacity against roughly 80 kt announced today — a classic timing problem where the spending comes early and the payoff arrives late.

Who gains: recyclers, refurbishers and battery makers, with the second-order benefit of greater supply certainty and price predictability that could lower battery costs and, eventually, EV sticker prices in a price-sensitive market.
Who pays: early investors, since ₹41,826 crore of the ₹55,057 crore total falls in the final five-year block while recoverable volumes in the first five years are just 23 kt — unit economics will be thin at the start.
The macro benefit is real but modest: recycling is projected to meet only about 10-12% of lithium demand for EV battery manufacturing, making it a buffer against supply shocks rather than import substitution.
Exporting "black mass" is the genuine economic leakage — the value-addition step happens abroad, leaving India earning intermediate-product margins instead of refined-mineral value.
On jobs, the bigger prize may be formalising a largely informal solid-waste sector, though that depends on standards, testing infrastructure and take-back systems the paper itself calls fragmented.

What to watch — Whether the Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme's ~270 kt target for FY2030-31 translates into built capacity, and whether black mass flows get regulated — those two levers will largely decide investment appetite.

These are working-paper projections resting on assumptions about EV sales reaching 49.9 million by FY2037-38, battery lifespans and future mineral prices; CSEP itself notes the views are the authors', not the institution's or the government's policy.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 9 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

A working paper by the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), by fellow Shyamasis Das and former research associate Kartik Nair, scheduled for publication on September 29, estimates the value of minerals recoverable from retired electric vehicle batteries in India. Titled 'Battery circularity in India - A billion-dollar long-term opportunity: The case of EV batteries', it maps projected EV sales, battery chemistry, recoverable minerals, recycling capacity and investment needs. Retired EV batteries are currently classified as "hazardous waste" in India, while lithium, nickel and cobalt — classified by the Ministry of Mines as critical and strategic minerals — are 100% imported. The paper argues India must build circularity into its EV system now rather than retrofit it later.

Key facts

Minerals recoverable from retired EV batteries in India are valued at ₹1,01,491 crore, or $11.94 billion at ₹85 to the dollar, by FY2040-41.
About 573 kilotonnes (kt) of minerals could be recovered from EV batteries between FY2026-27 and FY2040-41: 23 kt by FY2030-31, 118 kt in the next five years and 432 kt up to FY2040-41.
Processing this needs about 3,315 kt of recycling capacity by FY2040-41 (122 kt, 673 kt and 2,520 kt across the three five-year periods) and ₹55,057 crore of investment (₹2,028 crore, ₹11,169 crore, ₹41,826 crore).
India added nearly 8 million EVs between FY2016-17 and FY2025-26; EVs were 8.25% of total vehicle sales in FY2025-26.
Annual EV sales are projected at 9.1 million in FY2030-31 and nearly 49.9 million by FY2037-38, with e-two-wheelers rising from about 7.1 million to 40.1 million.
Electric two-wheelers would supply about 57% of all recyclable minerals — 53% of lithium, 60% of nickel, 63% of cobalt; cars 24%, three-wheelers (excluding e-rickshaws) 15%, medium/heavy EVs 1.2%.
Recycling could meet about 10% of India's lithium demand for EV battery making in FY2026-27 to FY2030-31, rising to about 12% in the next five years.
India's announced battery processing capacity is around 80 kt; the Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme targets about 270 kt by FY2030-31.

Timeline

FY2016-17 to FY2025-26India adds nearly 8 million EVs, mostly electric two- and three-wheelers.
2022Battery Waste Management Rules notified, providing the foundation for battery recycling regulation.
2024-25 to 2026-27Battery Waste Management Rules collection targets of 70%, 80% and 90% respectively take effect.
FY2025-26EVs account for 8.25% of total vehicle sales in India.
September 29CSEP working paper on battery circularity scheduled to be published.
2027 and 2031EU recovery targets: 90% then 95% for cobalt, copper, lead, nickel; 50% then 80% for lithium.
FY2030-31Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme targets about 270 kt capacity; EV sales projected at 9.1 million.
FY2037-38Annual EV sales projected at nearly 49.9 million.
FY2040-41Cumulative recoverable minerals worth ₹1,01,491 crore; 3,315 kt recycling capacity required.

Who has a stake

CSEP (Centre for Social and Economic Progress) — Think tank whose working paper by Shyamasis Das and Kartik Nair makes the projections; says views are the authors', not necessarily the institution's.
Ministry of Mines — Classifies lithium, nickel and cobalt as critical and strategic minerals, for which India is 100% import-dependent.
EV and battery manufacturers — A reliable recycling supply chain could give supply certainty and price predictability, lowering battery and EV prices in a price-sensitive market.
Recyclers, refurbishers and repurposers — Stand to gain a new industrial ecosystem; some currently export black mass, mostly to China, instead of recovering minerals domestically.
Informal solid-waste sector workers — A larger recycling ecosystem could help formalise a sector that remains largely informal.
Government policymakers — Must decide on recycling investment roadmap, black mass regulation, mineral-specific recovery targets and revision of Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022.

Why it matters

India imports all of its lithium, nickel and cobalt, so recovering minerals from retired EV batteries offers a domestic buffer against critical mineral supply shocks — meeting an estimated 10-12% of lithium demand for EV batteries in the coming decade. Because plants take years to build and recovery lines months to stabilise, delaying investment risks turning a ₹1.01 lakh crore opportunity into what the paper calls a "missed opportunity for the industry". Cheaper recycled inputs could also lower battery and EV prices, addressing the high upfront cost that deters buyers.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

CSEP paper: EV battery minerals worth ₹1,01,491 crore ($11.94 billion at ₹85/dollar) recoverable in India by FY2040-41; 573 kt of minerals; ₹55,057 crore investment.
Lithium, nickel and cobalt: classified as critical and strategic minerals by the Ministry of Mines; India is 100% import-dependent.
Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022 set collection targets of 70% (2024-25), 80% (2025-26) and 90% (from 2026-27) but no mineral-specific recovery targets.
Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme targets about 270 kt by FY2030-31; it also covers e-waste and other scrapped battery streams.
EU battery recovery targets: 90% (2027) and 95% (2031) for cobalt, copper, lead, nickel; 50% and 80% for lithium. China: 90% lithium, 98% nickel, cobalt, manganese, copper, aluminium, rare earths.
Black mass: intermediate product of battery recycling; EU regulates it as hazardous waste and tracks cross-border movement; at least 60% of Europe's black mass is exported.

Mains framing

India's EV transition, with sales projected to rise from 8.25% of vehicle sales in FY2025-26 to nearly 49.9 million units annually by FY2037-38, will generate a large stock of retired batteries containing lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper — minerals for which India is wholly import-dependent. The CSEP paper quantifies this as 573 kt of recoverable minerals worth ₹1,01,491 crore by FY2040-41, needing 3,315 kt of capacity and ₹55,057 crore of investment, against announced capacity of only about 80 kt and a scheme target of 270 kt by FY2030-31. The constraints are institutional rather than geological: batteries remain classified as hazardous waste, collection is "fragmented", black mass is exported mainly to China, and the Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022 set collection targets on conservative battery-life assumptions that could force early retirement while omitting mineral-specific recovery targets. The paper's ten priority interventions — creating domestic demand for recycled minerals, including them in the national critical mineral stockpile, technical standards and testing infrastructure, better take-back programmes, regulating black mass flows, harmonised safety rules for collection, storage and transport, and long-term manufacturer-recycler partnerships, alongside the proposed Battery Aadhaar framework — offer a template. The way forward is anticipatory planning, since plants take years to build and "just in time" scale-up is judged infeasible.

Key terms

Black mass: An intermediate product generated during battery recycling; some Indian recyclers export it, mostly to China, rather than recovering minerals at home.
Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022: India's existing framework for battery waste, with collection targets rising to 90% from 2026-27 but no mineral-specific recovery targets.
Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme: Government scheme targeting about 270 kt of processing capacity by FY2030-31, also covering e-waste and other scrapped battery streams.
Battery Aadhaar: A proposed framework cited by the authors as part of India's foundation for battery traceability and circularity; details not stated in the source.
Battery circularity: Designing the battery system so end-of-life batteries become a domestic resource through recycling, refurbishment and second-life use.
Second-life applications: Reuse of batteries from medium- and heavy-duty EVs, whose longer-lasting packs mean they contribute only about 1.2% of recyclable minerals.

Practice questions

Examine how battery recycling can strengthen India's critical mineral security. Discuss with reference to the estimated scale of recoverable minerals from retired EV batteries and the gaps in India's current recycling capacity.
The Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022 set collection targets but no mineral-specific recovery targets. Critically evaluate India's battery waste regulation against the EU and Chinese models.
"Exporting black mass is akin to letting precious resources leave the country's shores." Discuss the policy measures needed to build a domestic battery circularity ecosystem in India.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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