IMD forecasts heavy rain in West Bengal in late September
A low-pressure area could form over the north Andaman Sea as early as Saturday, September 19, the India Meteorological Department said. It is likely to move towards the Odisha-Andhra coast and later towards Uttar Pradesh, near Bihar, possibly bringing torrential rain. A heavy rain warning for the coast has been issued from Wednesday, September 23. South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore and Jhargram may see showers on September 24. Durga Puja 2026 runs October 16-20.
Source
Weather & IMD forecasts · read the original report ↗
Desk check · compared with the source
What the desk checked (5)
- A low-pressure area could form over the north Andaman Sea on Saturday, September 19. — Attributed to IMD forecast as cited in the source; stated as a possibility, not a certainty.
- The system is likely to move towards the Odisha-Andhra coast and later towards Uttar Pradesh, near Bihar. — Attributed to the weather forecast in the source; no named official quoted for the track.
- Heavy rain warning along the coast issued from Wednesday, September 23; showers expected in South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore and Jhargram on September 24. — Appears in source; warning attributed to IMD, specific districts listed without direct quote.
- Durga Puja 2026 will be observed from October 16 to October 20, 2026. — Figure appears in source; no source cited for the dates.
- Torrential rain expected in the last week of September. — Hedged in source with 'reportedly'; unattributed.
Analysts’ view opinion
A weather bulletin is rarely just a weather bulletin in West Bengal, where Durga Puja is as much a political stage as a religious festival. An IMD forecast of a late-September low-pressure system and heavy rain across Gangetic Bengal, South 24 Parganas, Midnapore and Jhargram lands in districts that are electorally sensitive, and it arrives while the state is still ahead of the Puja window the story places in mid-October 2026. The immediate political test is administrative rather than partisan: drainage, crop damage and relief response in coastal and western districts will shape how the state government is judged, and how quickly the opposition moves to critique it.
- Durga Puja is a high-visibility civic and political occasion in Bengal, so any credible threat of disruption from rain tends to become a governance talking point rather than a purely meteorological one.
- The districts flagged — South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Jhargram — are politically contested terrain, which raises the stakes on visible relief and preparedness work there.
- Because the system is forecast to track towards the Odisha-Andhra coast and later towards Uttar Pradesh near Bihar, the political fallout is potentially multi-state, with each state government's response open to comparison.
- Early warnings give incumbents a chance to look proactive; the flip side is that a well-flagged forecast removes the excuse of surprise if relief is seen as slow.
- The story does not report any political statement, so at this stage the politics is anticipated rather than actual — a reminder to read this as analysis, not reported reaction.
What to watch — Watch whether state administrations convert the IMD warning into visible pre-positioning of relief and drainage work in the named districts, and whether opposition parties frame any flooding or crop loss as an administrative failure.
This story establishes only a forecast and warnings — it does not establish that damage will occur, does not report any government or party response, and the Puja dates it cites fall well after the rain window described.
Deep dive
Research brief · 8 facts · 9 dates · exam-readyThe brief
Context
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the formation of a low-pressure area over the north Andaman Sea, which could trigger heavy to torrential rain across eastern India in the last week of September. The system is expected to track towards the Odisha-Andhra coast and then inland towards Uttar Pradesh near Bihar. In West Bengal, where Durga Puja is the biggest annual festival, the forecast has raised concerns about a rain-hit festive season; Durga Puja 2026 is to be observed from October 16 to October 20, 2026.
Key facts
- IMD said a low-pressure area could form over the north Andaman Sea as early as Saturday, September 19.
- Once formed, the system is likely to move towards the Odisha-Andhra coast and later towards Uttar Pradesh, near Bihar.
- A warning for heavy rain along the coast has been issued from Wednesday, September 23.
- South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore and Jhargram should brace for showers on Thursday, September 24.
- IMD statement (issued Friday): fairly widespread to widespread rain with thunderstorms and lightning over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during September 18-24.
- Gangetic West Bengal to see fairly widespread to widespread rainfall during September 18-20 and September 23-24; Odisha during September 22-24; Jharkhand on September 24.
- Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Gangetic West Bengal during September 23-24; Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on September 19 and 24; Bihar on September 18; Odisha on September 18-19 and 22.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall also likely over Gangetic West Bengal on September 18.
Timeline
- September 18Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Bihar and Odisha; isolated very heavy rainfall likely over Gangetic West Bengal; start of the widespread rain spell over Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
- Friday (before September 19)IMD releases statement detailing rainfall distribution for eastern India and Andaman & Nicobar Islands for September 18-24.
- Saturday, September 19Low-pressure area could form over the north Andaman Sea; isolated heavy rain likely over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.
- September 20Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands; end of the September 18-20 widespread rain spell over Gangetic West Bengal.
- September 22Isolated heavy rainfall likely over Odisha; start of the September 22-24 widespread rain spell over Odisha.
- Wednesday, September 23Heavy rain warning for the coast comes into effect; renewed widespread rain over Gangetic West Bengal.
- Thursday, September 24Showers expected in South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore and Jhargram; rain over Jharkhand and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim.
- Last week of SeptemberHeavy downpour reportedly expected as the low-pressure system moves inland towards Uttar Pradesh, near Bihar.
- October 16-20, 2026Durga Puja 2026 to be observed.
Who has a stake
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) — The official forecasting agency; its low-pressure area tracking and heavy rain warnings drive public preparedness and administrative response.
- Residents of Gangetic West Bengal — Face widespread rain on September 18-20 and 23-24, with isolated heavy and very heavy rainfall spells.
- South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore, Jhargram districts — Specifically flagged for showers on September 24; coastal districts also under the heavy rain warning from September 23.
- Durga Puja organisers, traders and pandal-goers in West Bengal — A rain-drenched festive season cannot be ruled out, affecting preparations, footfall and earnings.
- Odisha, Andhra coast, Jharkhand, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh — Lie along the projected track of the low-pressure system and face rain, including isolated heavy spells.
- Andaman & Nicobar Islands — Fairly widespread to widespread rain with thunderstorms and lightning during September 18-24; isolated heavy rain on September 20.
- Fishermen and coastal communities — A heavy rain warning along the coast from September 23 affects sea-going activity and safety.
Why it matters
Low-pressure areas forming over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal are the main drivers of late-monsoon rain in eastern India, and their inland track decides who gets torrential rain. For West Bengal, the timing overlaps with the run-up to Durga Puja, when heavy rain can disrupt an economically and culturally crucial festival. Advance warnings for coastal districts also determine how farmers, fishermen and district administrations prepare.
UPSC angle
Prelims pointers
- India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the national agency that issues weather forecasts and heavy rainfall warnings.
- A low-pressure area forming over the north Andaman Sea was forecast as early as September 19, likely to move to the Odisha-Andhra coast and then towards Uttar Pradesh near Bihar.
- IMD sub-divisions named in the forecast: Gangetic West Bengal, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim, Odisha, Bihar, Jharkhand, Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
- Heavy rain warning along the coast issued from Wednesday, September 23.
- Districts flagged for showers on September 24: South 24 Parganas, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, Jhargram.
- Durga Puja 2026: October 16 to October 20, 2026.
Mains framing
Late-monsoon low-pressure systems originating over the Andaman Sea and Bay of Bengal are a recurring driver of extreme rainfall in eastern India, and the IMD's current forecast illustrates the chain: formation over the north Andaman Sea around September 19, movement towards the Odisha-Andhra coast, and inland travel towards Uttar Pradesh near Bihar, with torrential rain expected in the last week of September. The implications are spread across sub-divisions: widespread rain with thunderstorms and lightning over the Andaman & Nicobar Islands (September 18-24), isolated very heavy rain over Gangetic West Bengal (September 18), renewed heavy spells there on September 23-24, and heavy rain over Odisha, Bihar and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim on specified dates. For West Bengal, the added dimension is festival exposure, since Durga Puja 2026 falls between October 16 and 20 and a rain-drenched Puja cannot be ruled out. The way forward, as supported by the source, rests on acting on the coastal heavy rain warning effective September 23 and district-level preparedness in South 24 Parganas, East and West Midnapore and Jhargram; further policy measures are not stated in the source.
Key terms
- Low-pressure area
- A weather system of relatively low atmospheric pressure; here forecast over the north Andaman Sea and capable of bringing torrential rain as it moves inland.
- IMD
- India Meteorological Department, which issued the forecast and the heavy rain warning along the coast from September 23.
- Gangetic West Bengal
- IMD sub-division covering the southern, plains part of West Bengal; flagged for widespread and isolated very heavy rainfall.
- Sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim
- IMD sub-division covering north Bengal foothills and Sikkim; isolated heavy rain likely on September 19 and 24.
- Isolated very heavy rainfall
- IMD rainfall category used for the highest intensity spell mentioned here, forecast over Gangetic West Bengal on September 18.
- Durga Puja
- West Bengal's principal annual festival, to be observed from October 16 to October 20, 2026.
Practice questions
- Discuss how low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea shape late-monsoon rainfall over eastern India, using the September 2025 forecast as an illustration.
- Examine the role of advance weather warnings in disaster preparedness for coastal districts of West Bengal and Odisha.
- How can festival-season planning in states like West Bengal be made more weather-resilient, given the overlap of late-monsoon rain with major public gatherings?
Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.