IMD forecasts heavy rain in Delhi, Punjab, Kerala on September 16

The India Meteorological Department has forecast widespread rain across several parts of India on Wednesday, September 16, with isolated heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab, and thunderstorms with lightning there and over Uttarakhand. Fairly widespread to widespread rain is expected in the region on September 16-17. Heavy rain is also likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Kerala, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, with winds of 40-50 kmph in southern areas.

Written by AI from Weather & IMD forecasts · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 16 Sept 2026, 3:17 am IST

Source

Weather & IMD forecasts · read the original report ↗

#imd#monsoon#rainfall forecast#delhi rain#thunderstorms

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

IMD forecasts isolated heavy rainfall over Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab on September 16. — Attributed to IMD in the source; consistent across the article.
Fairly widespread to widespread rain forecast over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on September 16-17. — Attributed to IMD; figures and dates appear in the source.
Thunderstorms with gusty winds of 40-50 kmph likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. — Wind speed range appears in the source, attributed to IMD.
A low-pressure area over southwest Rajasthan and Kutch on September 15 moved into southeast Pakistan, with circulation up to 7.6 km above mean sea level. — Figure stated in source as IMD analysis; not independently verifiable here.
Conditions are becoming favourable for southwest monsoon withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19. — Attributed to IMD; stated as a likelihood, not a confirmed event.

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Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

This is only a weather bulletin, but its political weight is not small. Heavy rain is forecast precisely in the most administratively sensitive and politically scrutinised belt — Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Punjab and Chandigarh — where images of waterlogging, gridlock or crop damage tend to convert quickly into a debate about governance capacity. The fact that the IMD has issued advance warning shifts the burden of accountability from the weather itself to preparedness.

Because governance in Delhi is shared across multiple authorities, blame-trading over waterlogging is a familiar political pattern rather than an exception.
In farm-heavy Punjab and Haryana, rain during the kharif harvest window can quickly push compensation and crop-insurance demands onto the political agenda.
With Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, the Northeast and sub-Himalayan West Bengal also on the list, this is not a single-region issue but a test of Centre-state coordination.
When a forecast exists in advance, any delay in response gives opposition parties a clean line of attack: warned, but not ready.
Equally, an effective response — field visits, timely relief announcements — can deliver political credit to incumbent governments.

What to watch — Watch how fast waterlogging visuals and crop-loss estimates from Delhi, Punjab and Haryana after September 16-17 translate into political statements and compensation demands.

This story is only an IMD forecast — it establishes nothing about actual damage anywhere, about government action, or about any leader's or party's response.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 4 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast widespread rain across northern, eastern and southern India on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, with isolated heavy rainfall in Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab. The IMD attributes the continuing activity to several simultaneous weather systems, including a low-pressure area that moved from southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch into southeast Pakistan, an upper-air circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal, and a trough running from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar. The forecast comes even as the IMD says conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to begin withdrawing from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19.

Key facts

IMD forecast isolated heavy rainfall over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on September 16, 2026.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall forecast over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on September 16-17, with isolated heavy rain.
Thunderstorms with lightning likely at isolated places over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and Uttarakhand on September 16.
Heavy rain at isolated places forecast for Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Kerala, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on September 16.
Gusty winds of 40-50 kmph with thunderstorms and lightning likely over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Mahe, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
A low-pressure area over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch on September 15 moved into southeast Pakistan and neighbouring areas; its circulation extended up to 7.6 km above mean sea level.
An upper-air circulation persisted over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha and West Bengal coasts.
IMD said conditions are becoming favourable for southwest monsoon withdrawal from some parts of west Rajasthan around September 19.

Timeline

September 15, 2026Low-pressure area located over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch; it later moved into southeast Pakistan and neighbouring areas. IMD forecast published at 19:30 IST.
September 16, 2026 (Wednesday)Isolated heavy rain forecast for Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh, Punjab, plus Andamans, Northeast, Kerala, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
September 16-17, 2026Fairly widespread to widespread rain with isolated heavy rain over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab.
Around September 19, 2026Conditions becoming favourable for southwest monsoon withdrawal from some parts of west Rajasthan, per IMD.

Who has a stake

India Meteorological Department (IMD) — Issues the rainfall, thunderstorm and monsoon withdrawal forecasts on which public advisories depend.
Residents of Delhi-NCR, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab — Face another wet day with isolated heavy rain, thunderstorms and lightning on September 16-17.
Coastal and southern states - Kerala and Mahe, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal — Exposed to heavy rain plus gusty winds of 40-50 kmph and lightning at isolated places.
Northeast and eastern states - Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal — Forecast for isolated heavy rainfall on September 16, with implications for flooding and landslides.
Andaman and Nicobar Islands — Heavy rain, thunderstorms, lightning and 40-50 kmph winds forecast, affecting island transport and fishing.
West Rajasthan — First region where southwest monsoon withdrawal conditions are becoming favourable, around September 19.

Why it matters

Late-September rain spells in densely populated regions like Delhi-NCR bring waterlogging, traffic disruption and lightning risk, while heavy rain in the Northeast, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and peninsular India raises flood and landslide concerns. The forecast also marks a transition point: the IMD expects the southwest monsoon to start withdrawing from west Rajasthan around September 19, which matters for crop harvesting, reservoir levels and the onset of the northeast monsoon season.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

IMD is India's national weather forecasting agency; it issued the September 16, 2026 rainfall forecast.
Low-pressure area on September 15, 2026 lay over southwest Rajasthan and adjoining Kutch, later moving to southeast Pakistan; circulation extended to 7.6 km above mean sea level.
Trough extended from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar through Tamil Nadu.
Gusty winds of 40-50 kmph forecast over Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Mahe, and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Southwest monsoon withdrawal from parts of west Rajasthan expected around September 19, 2026.
Gulf of Mannar lies between southeastern Tamil Nadu coast and Sri Lanka; named in the IMD trough description.

Mains framing

The mid-September 2026 rainfall spell illustrates how the tail end of the southwest monsoon is shaped by the overlap of multiple synoptic systems rather than a single driver: a low-pressure area tracking from southwest Rajasthan and Kutch into southeast Pakistan with a circulation reaching 7.6 km above mean sea level, a persistent upper-air circulation over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha-West Bengal coasts, and a trough from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar. Together these sustain moisture inflow and produce simultaneous heavy rain in the northwest plains, the Northeast and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, and the deep south, along with thunderstorms, lightning and 40-50 kmph gusts in island and coastal areas. The implications differ by geography - urban waterlogging and lightning risk in Delhi-NCR, flood and slope-failure risk in hill and Northeast districts, and fishing and transport disruption in the Andamans and Tamil Nadu coast. That the IMD simultaneously flags withdrawal conditions over west Rajasthan around September 19 underlines the need for location-specific nowcasts, lightning warnings, urban drainage preparedness and coordination with agriculture agencies during the harvest-sensitive withdrawal phase.

Key terms

Low-pressure area: A region of relatively lower atmospheric pressure that draws in moist air and triggers rainfall; one moved from southwest Rajasthan-Kutch into southeast Pakistan.
Upper-air circulation: A cyclonic circulation in the upper levels of the atmosphere, here persisting over the northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Odisha-West Bengal coasts.
Trough: An elongated zone of low pressure; the source cites one from south interior Karnataka to the Gulf of Mannar through Tamil Nadu.
Isolated heavy rainfall: IMD terminology indicating heavy rain at a few scattered places within a forecast region rather than across it.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall: IMD spatial-distribution categories describing rain over a large share of the stations in a region, forecast for Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Punjab on September 16-17.
Monsoon withdrawal: The retreat of the southwest monsoon, which typically begins from northwest India; expected from parts of west Rajasthan around September 19, 2026.

Practice questions

Explain how the simultaneous presence of a low-pressure area, an upper-air circulation and a trough can keep monsoon rainfall active over widely separated parts of India.
Discuss the significance of the southwest monsoon's withdrawal phase from northwest India for agriculture and disaster management, with reference to the September 2026 forecast.
Urban flooding in Delhi-NCR recurs with every heavy spell. Examine the institutional and infrastructural measures needed to reduce this vulnerability.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

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