IMD declares monsoon season over, rainfall 13% below normal

The India Meteorological Department on Wednesday officially announced the end of the monsoon season, during which the country recorded 13% less rainfall than normal. Withdrawal is continuing. On October 1, heavy rain was highly likely in parts of Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, with thunderstorms in the Northeast, while Delhi and most of north and west India stay dry. Kibbanahalli in Tumakuru district recorded 10 cm rain in 24 hours.

Written by AI from Weather · not yet reviewed by an editor · Published 1 Oct 2026, 11:35 am IST

Source

Weather · read the original report ↗

#monsoon#imd#rainfall#weather forecast#withdrawal

Desk check · compared with the source

What the desk checked (5)

Monsoon season ended with 13% below-normal rainfall nationally. — Attributed to IMD, which officially declared the season's end on Wednesday; figure appears in source.
Heavy rain highly likely in parts of Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on October 1. — Attributed to IMD's September 30 forecast.
Kibbanahalli in Tumakuru district recorded 10 cm rain in 24 hours to 8:30 am Wednesday, the highest in that period. — Attributed to IMD records; figure appears in source.
Northeast rain caused by a low-pressure system over north Myanmar and adjoining areas, expected to weaken within 12 hours. — Attributed to IMD.
Bengaluru faces waterlogging risk as wind shift pushes rain cells toward KIA airport. — Source cites an unnamed 'they'; attribution unclear and editors should treat as unsourced observation.

Written by AI from Weather · not yet reviewed by an editor · How we use AI · Report an error

Analysts’ view opinion

AI Political Analyst

The IMD's declaration of a season ending 13% below normal rainfall reads as a weather statistic, but its political consequences usually surface over the following months. If rural incomes, yields and reservoir levels are affected, pressure will build on state governments for compensation, loan relief and input subsidies. The split picture — dry weather across north and west India alongside heavy rain in the south — could make centre-state relief allocation a politically sensitive question.

Deficient rainfall typically pushes agrarian distress to the front of the political agenda, with opposition parties naturally demanding farmer relief and compensation packages.
The 13% figure is a national average; the story does not say which districts suffered most, so political pressure is likely to be uneven and region-specific.
Heavy rain in parts of Karnataka such as Tumakuru, plus the flagged waterlogging risk in Bengaluru, could revive familiar local criticism of urban governance and civic infrastructure.
Dry conditions across Delhi and north India tend to bring seasonal air-quality and crop-residue debates back into political contention.
The IMD announcement is technical, but it often serves as the official starting point for government relief statements and administrative reviews.

What to watch — Watch whether state governments announce crop-loss or drought assessments and seek central assistance, and whether the Bengaluru waterlogging issue hardens into a local governance row.

The story provides only rainfall data and forecasts; it establishes nothing about crop losses, drought declarations or any government or political response.

Deep dive

Research brief · 8 facts · 5 dates · exam-ready

The brief

Context

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Wednesday officially declared the end of the 2025 southwest monsoon season, with the country recording 13% less rainfall than normal. Monsoon withdrawal is still under way and is leaving spells of rain over parts of south India and the Northeast. The IMD's 30 September forecast flagged heavy rain in the deep south for 1 October, while most of north and west India, including Delhi, was expected to stay dry.

Key facts

IMD officially announced the end of the monsoon season on Wednesday; countrywide rainfall was 13% below normal.
IMD's 30 September forecast: very high probability of heavy rain in parts of Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal on 1 October.
Kibbanahalli in Karnataka's Tumakuru district recorded 10 cm rain in the 24 hours up to 8:30 am Wednesday — the highest in IMD records for that period.
The monsoon withdrawal line currently runs through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur and Deesa up to Naliya in Gujarat.
Dry weather forecast for Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu-Kashmir, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Marathwada, Vidarbha and west Madhya Pradesh.
Winds of 40-50 kmph with thunderstorms likely over Kerala and Mahe, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal; 30-40 kmph over Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka and Odisha.
Northeast rain is driven by a low-pressure system over north Myanmar and adjoining southeast Bangladesh, Mizoram and northeast Bay of Bengal, likely to weaken within 12 hours.
'Isolated' rainfall means rain recorded at up to about 25% of weather stations in a limited area.

Timeline

30 SeptemberIMD issues forecast flagging heavy rain over Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal.
Wednesday, up to 8:30 amKarnataka records widespread good rain; Kibbanahalli (Tumakuru) logs 10 cm in 24 hours.
WednesdayIMD officially declares the monsoon season over, with 13% below-normal rainfall.
1 OctoberRain expected in south India and the Northeast; dry weather in most of north and west India.
Next 2-3 daysConditions likely to turn favourable for monsoon withdrawal from remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, UP, Gujarat, MP, J&K, Himachal and Uttarakhand.

Who has a stake

India Meteorological Department (IMD) — Declares onset, withdrawal and seasonal rainfall departure; issues daily forecasts and warnings.
Farmers across India — A 13% below-normal season affects kharif harvest and soil moisture for the rabi sowing that follows.
Residents of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and Karnataka — Face heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds of 40-50 kmph as the monsoon withdraws.
Bengaluru city and civic agencies — Very heavy rain at Hosakote and rain cells drifting toward KIA airport raise the risk of waterlogging in the city.
Northeastern states (Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Arunachal) — Thunderstorms and scattered rain from the Myanmar-area low-pressure system moving toward Mizoram and Tripura.
North and west India including Delhi — Dry weather as withdrawal advances, ending the rainy season for the region.

Why it matters

The monsoon delivers the bulk of India's annual rainfall, so a season ending 13% below normal has direct consequences for crop output, reservoir storage and drinking water. The uneven ending — heavy rain in the south and Northeast even as the north turns dry — shows how skewed the distribution can be within a single season. For cities like Bengaluru, withdrawal-phase downpours still carry an immediate waterlogging risk.

UPSC angle

Prelims pointers

IMD declared the 2025 monsoon season over on a Wednesday; seasonal rainfall was 13% below normal.
Monsoon normally begins withdrawing from northwest India around mid-September and exits the country by mid-October.
Withdrawal line reported through Gurdaspur, Chandigarh, Muzaffarnagar, Aligarh, Dholpur, Udaipur, Deesa to Naliya (Gujarat).
'Isolated' rainfall in IMD usage = rain at up to about 25% of weather stations in that area.
Kibbanahalli, Tumakuru district (Karnataka): 10 cm in 24 hours, the highest in that period.

Mains framing

The IMD's declaration of a monsoon season ending 13% below normal highlights two linked challenges: the quantum of rainfall and its spatial-temporal distribution. Even as the withdrawal line retreats across Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh leaving north and west India dry, a low-pressure system near north Myanmar is triggering thunderstorms over the Northeast, and heavy rain is very likely over Kerala, south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal — illustrating that a deficient national average can coexist with damaging local excess. The implications run from kharif yields and residual soil moisture for rabi sowing to urban flood risk, as in Bengaluru where slow-moving rain cells drifting toward the KIA airport area threaten waterlogging. The way forward, as suggested by the source, lies in acting on IMD's station-level forecasts and defined categories (such as 'isolated' rain meaning up to 25% of stations reporting), so that agricultural advisories and city drainage responses are calibrated to local warnings rather than to the all-India figure alone.

Key terms

IMD (India Meteorological Department): The national weather agency that announces monsoon onset and withdrawal and issues rainfall forecasts and warnings.
Monsoon withdrawal line: The notional line marking how far the monsoon has retreated; currently from Gurdaspur through Chandigarh, Udaipur and Deesa to Naliya in Gujarat.
Isolated rainfall: IMD term for rain in limited areas, recorded at roughly up to 25% of weather stations there.
Low-pressure area: A weather system — here over north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh, Mizoram and northeast Bay of Bengal — that is driving Northeast rain before weakening.
Below-normal rainfall: Rainfall less than the long-period average; this season's shortfall was 13% for the country.

Practice questions

How does a 13% below-normal monsoon season affect kharif output and rabi sowing, and what role do IMD forecasts play in mitigating the impact?
Explain the concept of monsoon withdrawal and the withdrawal line. Why can withdrawal still bring heavy rainfall to parts of India?
Discuss urban waterlogging risk during the monsoon withdrawal phase, with reference to Bengaluru, and suggest measures to reduce it.

Grounded only in the source report — figures and dates are the source's, not inferred.

Next storyShruti Haasan says her acting debut in Hey Ram was accidental →

← All stories